Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Etoile de L'Est vs Gicumbi

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League Ngoma District Stadium, Birenga
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
45' Event
Arigumaho S.
86' Event
Masiri Luendo C.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Etoile de L'Est and Gicumbi finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gicumbi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Etoile de L'Est
15%
Draws
64%
Gicumbi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gicumbi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Gicumbi carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Gicumbi a 64% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Gicumbi have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Etoile de L'Est Clean Sheet 22%
Gicumbi Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Etoile de L'Est Gicumbi
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 11
Draws 5 6
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 0.67 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 1.04
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 15, 2026 Premier League
Etoile de L'Est vs Gicumbi
1:2
Feb 16, 2022 Premier League
Etoile de L'Est vs Gicumbi
1:1
Nov 3, 2021 Premier League
Gicumbi vs Etoile de L'Est
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Etoile de L'Est Compare

Top Goalscorer Arigumaho S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

Gicumbi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Etoile de L'Est 29 / 100
Gicumbi 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Etoile de L'Est Gicumbi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gicumbi Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gicumbi's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.33 goals per match.

Etoile de L'Est's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Etoile de L'Est stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Etoile de L'Est VS Gicumbi
0.33 Goals Scored 0.75
1.33 Goals Conceded 1.38
67% Over 1.5 75%
33% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Etoile de L'Est

(Home)
15 Sept
Etoile de L'Est
1 : 2
Gicumbi
12 Sept
Etoile de L'Est
0 : 0
Kigali FC
05 Sept
Amagaju
2 : 0
Etoile de L'Est
11 May
Etoile de L'Est
0 : 3
Bugesera
04 May
Police
1 : 2
Etoile de L'Est
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Gicumbi

(Away)
15 Sept
Etoile de L'Est
1 : 2
Gicumbi
12 Sept
Gicumbi
1 : 0
Amagaju
07 Sept
Police
1 : 2
Gicumbi
31 May
APR
2 : 0
Gicumbi
24 May
Gicumbi
3 : 2
Mukura Victory Sports
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gicumbi 3 3 0 0 5:2 9
2 Etincelles 3 2 1 0 2:0 7
3 Amagaju 3 1 1 1 2:1 4
4 APR 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
5 Al-Hilal Omdurman 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
6 Mukura Victory Sports 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
7 Marines 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
8 Police 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
9 Musanze 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
10 Gorilla 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
11 Kiyovu 3 1 0 2 1:2 3
12 Sunrise 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
13 Rayon Sport 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
14 Al-Merreikh 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
15 Etoile de L'Est 3 0 1 2 1:4 1
16 Kigali FC 3 0 1 2 0:4 1
17 Bugesera 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
18 Gasogi United 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)