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Etoile de L'Est vs Marines

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Muhoza D.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2023/2024 game between Etoile de L'Est and Marines finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Etoile de L'Est.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Etoile de L'Est
15%
Draws
37%
Marines
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Etoile de L'Est

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Marines come out ahead of Etoile de L'Est on wins alone.
  • 37% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Etoile de L'Est Clean Sheet 20%
Marines Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Etoile de L'Est Marines
Matches Played 28 35
Wins 9 12
Draws 4 10
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 0.68 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 1.15
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 28, 2024 Premier League
Etoile de L'Est vs Marines
1:0
Dec 5, 2023 Premier League
Marines vs Etoile de L'Est
3:2
May 7, 2022 Premier League
Etoile de L'Est vs Marines
2:0
Dec 28, 2021 Premier League
Marines vs Etoile de L'Est
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Etoile de L'Est Compare

Top Goalscorer Muhoza D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71

Marines Compare

Avg xG / game 1.05
Avg xA / game 0.64

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Etoile de L'Est 32 / 100
Marines 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Etoile de L'Est Marines

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marines Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marines has conceded goals in 83% of their last 35 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.75 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Etoile de L'Est stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Etoile de L'Est's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Etoile de L'Est VS Marines
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0.67 Goals Conceded 1.63
33% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Etoile de L'Est

(Home)
05 Sept
Amagaju
2 : 0
Etoile de L'Est
11 May
Etoile de L'Est
0 : 3
Bugesera
04 May
Police
1 : 2
Etoile de L'Est
28 Apr
Etoile de L'Est
1 : 0
Marines
20 Apr
Amagaju
0 : 1
Etoile de L'Est
Page 1 of 6

Marines

(Away)
06 Sept
Marines
2 : 0
Kigali FC
30 May
Marines
3 : 2
Muhanga
24 May
Marines
1 : 1
Musanze
16 May
Marines
2 : 3
Etincelles
09 May
Rayon Sport
2 : 1
Marines
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 APR 30 19 11 0 47:17 68
2 Rayon Sport 30 17 6 7 42:25 57
3 Musanze 30 16 5 9 34:24 53
4 Mukura Victory Sports 30 13 8 9 39:32 47
5 Kigali FC 30 12 9 9 26:25 45
6 Kiyovu 30 11 11 8 38:34 44
7 Police 30 12 3 15 35:34 39
8 Amagaju 30 10 9 11 30:31 39
9 Gasogi United 30 10 6 14 31:34 36
10 Gorilla 30 9 8 13 26:33 35
11 Marines 30 9 8 13 32:42 35
12 Muhazi United 30 7 12 11 21:29 33
13 Bugesera 30 7 11 12 37:35 32
14 Etincelles 30 8 8 14 35:44 32
15 Sunrise 30 9 5 16 25:40 32
16 Etoile de L'Est 30 9 4 17 20:39 31
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2023/2024 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2024/2025 (Qualification)