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Etoile Sahel vs Metlaoui Prediction & H2H Stats

Tunisia Tunisia

Ligue Professionnelle 1 Stade Olympique de Sousse, Sousse
Etoile Sahel Logo

Etoile Sahel

2 - 1
FT
Metlaoui Logo

Metlaoui

Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Lanquetin P.
46'
Sub
Nana B. In: Kouassi E.
Out: Nana B.
46'
Sub
Mrad Y. In: Chebbi O.
Out: Mrad Y.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Ligue Professionnelle 1 game between Etoile Sahel and Metlaoui finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Etoile Sahel.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Etoile Sahel
15%
Draws
36%
Metlaoui
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Etoile Sahel

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Etoile Sahel come out ahead of Metlaoui on wins alone.
  • 49% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Etoile Sahel Clean Sheet 68%
Metlaoui Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Etoile Sahel Metlaoui
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 8
Draws 6 11
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.14 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.14 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Etoile Sahel vs Metlaoui
2:1
Apr 29, 2026 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Metlaoui vs Etoile Sahel
2:0
Nov 1, 2025 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Etoile Sahel vs Metlaoui
2:0
Feb 22, 2025 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Etoile Sahel vs Metlaoui
2:1
Oct 26, 2024 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Metlaoui vs Etoile Sahel
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Etoile Sahel Compare

Top Goalscorer Fajari A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Abid O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Metlaoui Compare

Top Goalscorer Naffati O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Etoile Sahel 41 / 100
Metlaoui 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Etoile Sahel Metlaoui

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Etoile Sahel Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Etoile Sahel's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Metlaoui's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Metlaoui has conceded goals in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Etoile Sahel VS Metlaoui
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
2 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Etoile Sahel

(Home)
12 Sept
AS Marsa
1 : 0
Etoile Sahel
06 Sept
Etoile Sahel
1 : 1
Jeunesse Sportive
30 Aug
Etoile Sahel
2 : 1
Metlaoui
23 Aug
Esperance Tunis
3 : 2
Etoile Sahel
14 May
CS Sfaxien
3 : 1
Etoile Sahel
Page 1 of 6

Metlaoui

(Away)
13 Sept
Jeunesse Sportive
1 : 0
Metlaoui
06 Sept
Metlaoui
1 : 0
Hamam-Sousse
30 Aug
Etoile Sahel
2 : 1
Metlaoui
23 Aug
Metlaoui
0 : 1
Club Africain
17 May
Metlaoui
1 : 3
Esperance Tunis
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club Africain 3 3 0 0 3:0 9
2 Esperance Tunis 4 3 0 1 7:6 9
3 Ben Guerdane 4 2 2 0 7:5 8
4 CS Sfaxien 4 2 2 0 6:3 8
5 Monastir 4 2 2 0 7:5 8
6 PS Sakiet Eddaier 4 2 2 0 4:1 8
7 Jeunesse Sportive 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
8 CA Bizertin 4 2 1 1 3:3 7
9 Stade Tunisien 3 1 1 1 5:4 4
10 Etoile Sahel 4 1 1 2 5:6 4
11 AS Marsa 4 1 1 2 2:3 4
12 Zarzis 4 1 0 3 3:5 3
13 Metlaoui 4 1 0 3 2:4 3
14 Olympique Beja 4 0 2 2 3:5 2
15 Hamam-Sousse 4 0 1 3 1:5 1
16 Hammam-Lif 4 0 0 4 0:4 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)