Sport Picks
Excelsior vs Heerenveen
Netherlands
Eredivisie 2025/2026 Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam 
Match Events
38'
38'
Brouwers L.
Assist: Nordas L.
65'
65'
Sub
Nordas L. In: Vente D.
Out: Nordas L.
67'
67'
van Overeem J.
AI Match Summary
The Eredivisie 2025/2026 game between Excelsior and Heerenveen finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Heerenveen.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
46%
15%
39%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Excelsior
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Heerenveen carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Excelsior a 46% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Excelsior Clean Sheet 12%
Heerenveen Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Excelsior | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 27 |
| Wins | 13 | 15 |
| Draws | 7 | 5 |
| Losses | 9 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.9 | 2.15 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.45 | 1.74 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.44 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 7, 2026 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs Heerenveen
1:2
Oct 4, 2025 Eredivisie
Heerenveen vs Excelsior
2:1
Jan 19, 2024 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs Heerenveen
3:0
Sep 23, 2023 Eredivisie
Heerenveen vs Excelsior
0:3
May 13, 2023 Eredivisie
Heerenveen vs Excelsior
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Excelsior Compare
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22
Heerenveen Compare
Top Goalscorer Brouwers L.
1 Goals Assists Leader van Overeem J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Excelsior 83 / 100
Heerenveen 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Excelsior Heerenveen
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick EXC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Excelsior found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).
Heerenveen let in goals in 81% of their last 27 matches.
Excelsior has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Excelsior VS Heerenveen
3.25 Goals Scored 2.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Excelsior
(Home) 07 Aug
Cambuur
0 : 4 Excelsior
01 Aug
De Graafschap
1 : 5 Excelsior
24 Jul
Heracles
3 : 5 Excelsior
18 Jul
NAC Breda
1 : 3 Excelsior
11 Jul
Dordrecht
0 : 2 Excelsior
Page 1 of 6
04 Jul
Excelsior
3 : 2 Cambuur
10 May
Excelsior
1 : 1 FC Volendam
26 Apr
Excelsior
5 : 0 Utrecht
04 Apr
Excelsior
0 : 2 Nijmegen
07 Mar
Excelsior
1 : 2 Heerenveen
Page 1 of 3
Heerenveen
(Away) 09 Aug
Heerenveen
1 : 0 Twente
01 Aug
Heerenveen
3 : 2 Volos
25 Jul
Heerenveen
4 : 4 Leuven
17 Jul
Club Brugge
2 : 3 Heerenveen
03 Jul
Heerenveen
7 : 2 De Graafschap
Page 1 of 6
17 Jul
Club Brugge
2 : 3 Heerenveen
21 May
Utrecht
3 : 2 Heerenveen
11 May
NAC Breda
2 : 0 Heerenveen
03 May
FC Volendam
0 : 2 Heerenveen
12 Apr
AZ Alkmaar
3 : 0 Heerenveen
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV | 34 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 101:45 | 84 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 70:44 | 65 |
| 3 | Nijmegen | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 77:53 | 59 |
| 4 | Twente | 34 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 59:40 | 58 |
| 5 | Ajax | 34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 62:41 | 56 |
| 6 | Utrecht | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 55:42 | 53 |
| 7 | AZ Alkmaar | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 58:51 | 52 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57:53 | 51 |
| 9 | Groningen | 34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 49:45 | 48 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 40:62 | 43 |
| 11 | Sittard | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 49:63 | 39 |
| 12 | G.A. Eagles | 34 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 54:53 | 38 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 43:56 | 38 |
| 14 | Telstar | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 49:55 | 37 |
| 15 | Zwolle | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 44:71 | 37 |
| 16 | FC Volendam | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 35:55 | 32 |
| 17 | NAC Breda | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 35:58 | 29 |
| 18 | Heracles | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 35:85 | 19 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie (Main)
