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Excelsior vs Nijmegen

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie 2025/2026 Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Linssen B.
Assist: Nejasmic D.
60'
Sub
Hansson E. In: Yegoian I.
Out: Hansson E.
71' Event
Onal B.
Assist: Ouaissa S.

AI Match Summary

The Eredivisie 2025/2026 game between Excelsior and Nijmegen finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nijmegen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Excelsior
20%
Draws
38%
Nijmegen
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Excelsior

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Excelsior haven't matched Nijmegen's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Excelsior's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Regular Eredivisie 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Nijmegen here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Excelsior Clean Sheet 10%
Nijmegen Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Excelsior Nijmegen
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 13
Draws 8 8
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 2.5 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs Nijmegen
0:2
Aug 9, 2025 Eredivisie
Nijmegen vs Excelsior
5:0
May 6, 2024 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs Nijmegen
0:3
Aug 13, 2023 Eredivisie
Nijmegen vs Excelsior
3:4
Feb 19, 2023 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs Nijmegen
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Excelsior Compare

Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Nijmegen Compare

Top Goalscorer Linssen B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Onal B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Excelsior 40 / 100
Nijmegen 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Excelsior Nijmegen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Excelsior found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

Nijmegen's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Excelsior has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Excelsior VS Nijmegen
2.5 Goals Scored 2.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Excelsior

(Home)
24 Jul
Heracles
3 : 5
Excelsior
18 Jul
NAC Breda
1 : 3
Excelsior
11 Jul
Dordrecht
0 : 2
Excelsior
04 Jul
Excelsior
3 : 2
Cambuur
17 May
Sparta Rotterdam
2 : 3
Excelsior
Page 1 of 6

Nijmegen

(Away)
25 Jul
Nijmegen
0 : 1
Elversberg
18 Jul
Nijmegen
7 : 0
Al Fayha
14 Jul
Nijmegen
3 : 1
V-Varen Nagasaki
11 Jul
Anderlecht
3 : 2
Nijmegen
08 Jul
Nijmegen
2 : 3
Duisburg
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSV342734101:4584
2Feyenoord34198770:4465
3Nijmegen341611777:5359
4Twente341513659:4058
5Ajax341414662:4156
6Utrecht341581155:4253
7AZ Alkmaar3414101058:5152
8Heerenveen341491157:5351
9Groningen341461449:4548
10Sparta Rotterdam341271540:6243
11Sittard341161749:6339
12G.A. Eagles348141254:5338
13Excelsior341081643:5638
14Telstar349101549:5537
15Zwolle349101544:7137
16FC Volendam34881835:5532
17NAC Breda346111735:5829
18Heracles34542535:8519
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie (Main)