Sport Picks
Excursionistas vs Dep. Merlo
Argentina
Primera B Excursionistas Stadium, Buenos Aires 
Match Events
2'
2'
Blanco M.
25'
25'
Paulides A.
34'
34'
Blanco M.
AI Match Summary
The Primera B game between Excursionistas and Dep. Merlo finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Excursionistas.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
56%
30%
14%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Excursionistas
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
56%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Excursionistas come out ahead of Dep. Merlo on wins alone.
- Model gives Excursionistas a 56% chance of winning this.
- Regular Primera B form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Excursionistas Clean Sheet 68%
Dep. Merlo Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Excursionistas | Dep. Merlo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 15 | 7 |
| Draws | 7 | 11 |
| Losses | 7 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.52 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.9 | 1.52 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 27, 2026 Primera B
Excursionistas vs Dep. Merlo
5:0
Feb 15, 2026 Primera B
Dep. Merlo vs Excursionistas
1:2
Sep 6, 2025 Primera B
Excursionistas vs Dep. Merlo
3:1
Apr 20, 2025 Primera B
Dep. Merlo vs Excursionistas
3:2
Sep 14, 2024 Primera B
Dep. Merlo vs Excursionistas
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Excursionistas Compare
Top Goalscorer Blanco M.
2 Goals Assists Leader Polvera M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Dep. Merlo Compare
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Excursionistas 77 / 100
Dep. Merlo 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Excursionistas Dep. Merlo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Excursionistas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.
Excursionistas found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).
Defensive concern: Dep. Merlo conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.
Recent resilience: Excursionistas stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Excursionistas VS Dep. Merlo
1.5 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Excursionistas
(Home) 07 Sept
Excursionistas
2 : 1 Ituzaingo
29 Aug
Arsenal Sarandi
3 : 0 Excursionistas
25 Aug
Excursionistas
2 : 0 Argentino de Merlo
22 Aug
Talleres Remedios Escalada
1 : 2 Excursionistas
15 Aug
Excursionistas
5 : 3 Laferrere
Page 1 of 6
07 Sept
Excursionistas
2 : 1 Ituzaingo
25 Aug
Excursionistas
2 : 0 Argentino de Merlo
15 Aug
Excursionistas
5 : 3 Laferrere
31 Jul
Excursionistas
2 : 1 Deportivo Armenio
18 Jul
Excursionistas
0 : 0 Argentino de Quilmes
Page 1 of 3
Dep. Merlo
(Away) 05 Sept
Dep. Merlo
0 : 0 Defensores Unidos
31 Aug
Comunicaciones
1 : 0 Dep. Merlo
26 Aug
Dep. Merlo
1 : 2 Dock Sud
22 Aug
Ituzaingo
0 : 0 Dep. Merlo
15 Aug
Deportivo Camioneros
0 : 0 Dep. Merlo
Page 1 of 6
31 Aug
Comunicaciones
1 : 0 Dep. Merlo
22 Aug
Ituzaingo
0 : 0 Dep. Merlo
15 Aug
Deportivo Camioneros
0 : 0 Dep. Merlo
02 Aug
San Martin Burzaco
1 : 1 Dep. Merlo
18 Jul
CSD Liniers
1 : 1 Dep. Merlo
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 51:28 | 65 |
| 2 | Arsenal Sarandi | 34 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 45:22 | 63 |
| 3 | Deportivo Camioneros | 34 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 40:20 | 63 |
| 4 | Talleres Remedios Escalada | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 37:17 | 63 |
| 5 | Villa Dalmine | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 35:17 | 60 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 41:26 | 58 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 37:34 | 52 |
| 8 | Comunicaciones | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 34:31 | 49 |
| 9 | Deportivo Armenio | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 35:37 | 48 |
| 10 | Laferrere | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 41:44 | 47 |
| 11 | Dock Sud | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 38:35 | 43 |
| 12 | Argentino de Merlo | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 30:34 | 41 |
| 13 | San Martin Burzaco | 34 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 31:36 | 41 |
| 14 | Dep. Merlo | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 34:48 | 40 |
| 15 | Villa San Carlos | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 34:38 | 39 |
| 16 | Argentino de Quilmes | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 28:36 | 37 |
| 17 | CSD Liniers | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 27:35 | 37 |
| 18 | Flandria | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 29:42 | 35 |
| 19 | Defensores Unidos | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 28:36 | 34 |
| 20 | Brown Adrogue | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 21:35 | 34 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 34 | 4 | 19 | 11 | 17:29 | 31 |
| 22 | Ituzaingo | 34 | 1 | 11 | 22 | 20:53 | 14 |
Promotion - Primera Nacional 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Primera B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Primera C 2027 (Apertura)
