Sport Picks
Excursionistas vs Dep. Merlo
Argentina
Primera B Excursionistas Stadium, Buenos Aires 
Match Events
2'
2'
Blanco M.
25'
25'
Paulides A.
34'
34'
Blanco M.
AI Match Summary
The Primera B game between Excursionistas and Dep. Merlo finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Excursionistas.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Excursionistas
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Excursionistas come out ahead of Dep. Merlo on wins alone.
- Model gives Excursionistas a 90% chance of winning this.
- Regular Primera B form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Excursionistas Clean Sheet 68%
Dep. Merlo Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Excursionistas | Dep. Merlo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 14 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 9 |
| Losses | 7 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.63 | 1.25 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.75 | 2.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.75 | 2.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 27, 2026 Primera B
Excursionistas vs Dep. Merlo
5:0
Feb 15, 2026 Primera B
Dep. Merlo vs Excursionistas
1:2
Sep 6, 2025 Primera B
Excursionistas vs Dep. Merlo
3:1
Apr 20, 2025 Primera B
Dep. Merlo vs Excursionistas
3:2
Sep 14, 2024 Primera B
Dep. Merlo vs Excursionistas
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Excursionistas Compare
Top Goalscorer Blanco M.
2 Goals Assists Leader Polvera M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Dep. Merlo Compare
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Excursionistas 95 / 100
Dep. Merlo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Excursionistas Dep. Merlo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick EXC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.
Excursionistas found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).
Defensive concern: Dep. Merlo conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.
Recent resilience: Excursionistas stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Excursionistas VS Dep. Merlo
1.63 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Excursionistas
(Home) 18 Jul
Excursionistas
0 : 0 Argentino de Quilmes
14 Jul
Defensores Unidos
0 : 2 Excursionistas
10 Jul
Excursionistas
1 : 2 Comunicaciones
04 Jul
Dock Sud
3 : 1 Excursionistas
27 Jun
Excursionistas
5 : 0 Dep. Merlo
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Excursionistas
0 : 0 Argentino de Quilmes
10 Jul
Excursionistas
1 : 2 Comunicaciones
27 Jun
Excursionistas
5 : 0 Dep. Merlo
20 Jun
Excursionistas
1 : 1 Deportivo Camioneros
06 Jun
Excursionistas
2 : 0 San Martin Burzaco
Page 1 of 3
Dep. Merlo
(Away) 18 Jul
CSD Liniers
1 : 1 Dep. Merlo
14 Jul
Dep. Merlo
3 : 2 Real Pilar
10 Jul
UAI Urquiza
0 : 0 Dep. Merlo
04 Jul
Dep. Merlo
1 : 2 Villa Dalmine
27 Jun
Excursionistas
5 : 0 Dep. Merlo
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
CSD Liniers
1 : 1 Dep. Merlo
10 Jul
UAI Urquiza
0 : 0 Dep. Merlo
27 Jun
Excursionistas
5 : 0 Dep. Merlo
21 Jun
Arsenal Sarandi
4 : 2 Dep. Merlo
05 Jun
Talleres Remedios Escalada
2 : 0 Dep. Merlo
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal Sarandi | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 37:19 | 50 |
| 2 | Excursionistas | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 37:17 | 49 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios Escalada | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 29:13 | 49 |
| 4 | Villa Dalmine | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 30:14 | 48 |
| 5 | Deportivo Camioneros | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 31:17 | 47 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 27:21 | 44 |
| 7 | Comunicaciones | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 30:26 | 38 |
| 8 | Laferrere | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 29:30 | 38 |
| 9 | Real Pilar | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 29:29 | 37 |
| 10 | Deportivo Armenio | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 30:31 | 37 |
| 11 | Dep. Merlo | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 31:38 | 36 |
| 12 | San Martin Burzaco | 26 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 26:23 | 35 |
| 13 | Argentino de Merlo | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 26:24 | 35 |
| 14 | Dock Sud | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 26:24 | 31 |
| 15 | Argentino de Quilmes | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 25:28 | 31 |
| 16 | CSD Liniers | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 17:26 | 27 |
| 17 | Flandria | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 20:32 | 26 |
| 18 | Defensores Unidos | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 20:29 | 25 |
| 19 | UAI Urquiza | 26 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 12:22 | 24 |
| 20 | Brown Adrogue | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 16:29 | 24 |
| 21 | Villa San Carlos | 26 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 24:33 | 22 |
| 22 | Ituzaingo | 26 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 18:45 | 10 |
Promotion - Primera Nacional 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Primera B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Primera C 2027 (Apertura)