Sport Picks
Match Events
31'
31'
Colwill R.
Assist: Tanner O.
34'
34'
Colwill R.
Assist: Ashford C.
62'
62'
Sub
Andrew D. In: Cummins C.
Out: Andrew D.
AI Match Summary
Cardiff in this League One 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cardiff.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
21%
15%
64%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cardiff
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
64%
/ High Confidence
- Cardiff have won more games recently than Exeter.
- Win probability leans Cardiff's way, sitting at 80%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Exeter Clean Sheet 10%
Cardiff Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Exeter | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 4 | 16 |
| Draws | 12 | 8 |
| Losses | 13 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 1.17 | 2.34 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.93 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 2.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 14, 2026 League One
Exeter vs Cardiff
0:4
Dec 26, 2025 League One
Cardiff vs Exeter
1:0
Sep 16, 2025 EFL Trophy
Exeter vs Cardiff
0:1
Jul 24, 2021 Club Friendly
Cardiff vs Exeter
2:2
Jul 28, 2016 Club Friendly
Cardiff vs Exeter
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Exeter Compare
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Cardiff Compare
Top Goalscorer Colwill R.
2 Goals Assists Leader Robertson A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Exeter 10 / 100
Cardiff 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Exeter Cardiff
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick CAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Exeter scored in 66% of their last 29 games.
Cardiff has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.
Exeter has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Exeter VS Cardiff
1.13 Goals Scored 3.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Exeter
(Home) 10 Aug
Plymouth
2 : 0 Exeter
01 Aug
Exeter
1 : 1 Bristol City
31 Jul
Torquay
2 : 1 Exeter
25 Jul
Weston-super-Mare
0 : 2 Exeter
18 Jul
Truro
1 : 0 Exeter
Page 1 of 6
01 Aug
Exeter
1 : 1 Bristol City
02 May
Exeter
1 : 2 Bradford City
18 Apr
Exeter
3 : 3 Stockport County
06 Apr
Exeter
3 : 0 Doncaster
28 Mar
Exeter
0 : 0 Leyton Orient
Page 1 of 3
Cardiff
(Away) 08 Aug
Cardiff
3 : 2 Swindon
01 Aug
Cardiff
4 : 1 AS Roma
25 Jul
Forest Green
1 : 5 Cardiff
14 Jul
Cork City
1 : 6 Cardiff
11 Jul
Cardiff
0 : 6 Midtjylland
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
Forest Green
1 : 5 Cardiff
14 Jul
Cork City
1 : 6 Cardiff
02 May
Mansfield
5 : 4 Cardiff
18 Apr
Reading
1 : 3 Cardiff
14 Apr
Huddersfield
1 : 1 Cardiff
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lincoln City | 46 | 31 | 10 | 5 | 89:41 | 103 |
| 2 | Cardiff | 46 | 27 | 10 | 9 | 90:50 | 91 |
| 3 | Stockport County | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 71:58 | 77 |
| 4 | Bradford City | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 58:51 | 77 |
| 5 | Bolton | 46 | 19 | 18 | 9 | 70:52 | 75 |
| 6 | Stevenage | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 49:46 | 75 |
| 7 | Luton | 46 | 21 | 11 | 14 | 68:56 | 74 |
| 8 | Plymouth | 46 | 22 | 7 | 17 | 75:63 | 73 |
| 9 | Huddersfield | 46 | 18 | 13 | 15 | 74:64 | 67 |
| 10 | Mansfield | 46 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 62:50 | 65 |
| 11 | Wycombe | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 69:58 | 63 |
| 12 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 64:60 | 63 |
| 13 | Blackpool | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 54:65 | 60 |
| 14 | Doncaster | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 50:69 | 60 |
| 15 | Barnsley | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 68:73 | 59 |
| 16 | Wigan | 46 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 49:58 | 56 |
| 17 | Burton | 46 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 50:60 | 54 |
| 18 | Peterborough | 46 | 15 | 8 | 23 | 64:68 | 53 |
| 19 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 15 | 8 | 23 | 51:72 | 53 |
| 20 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 59:71 | 52 |
| 21 | Exeter | 46 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 52:61 | 49 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 36:61 | 42 |
| 23 | Rotherham | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41:71 | 41 |
| 24 | Northampton | 46 | 9 | 8 | 29 | 39:74 | 35 |
Promotion - Championship (Main)
Promotion - League One 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two (Main)
