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Exeter vs Crewe - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

League Two St James Park, Exeter
Tue, Oct 20, 2026
VS
06:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Exeter host Crewe in the League Two. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Exeter at 1 goals for, 1.24 against; Crewe at 1.46 for, 1.14 against. Past meetings favor Exeter slightly — 3-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 3, 2020, ending 1:1. The numbers (0.94 xG vs 1.25) point toward Crewe. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Exeter
15%
Draws
45%
Crewe
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Crewe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Exeter haven't matched Crewe's recent run of results.
  • 45% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Exeter Clean Sheet 19%
Crewe Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Exeter Crewe
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 7 11
Draws 8 10
Losses 14 7
Goals Scored 1 1.46
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 3, 2020 League Two
Exeter vs Crewe
1:1
Oct 5, 2019 League Two
Crewe vs Exeter
1:1
Feb 23, 2019 League Two
Crewe vs Exeter
1:2
Dec 15, 2018 League Two
Exeter vs Crewe
1:0
Feb 20, 2018 League Two
Crewe vs Exeter
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Exeter 32 / 100
Crewe 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Exeter Crewe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Crewe Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Crewe's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Exeter stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Exeter scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Exeter VS Crewe
0.75 Goals Scored 1.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
38% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Exeter

(Home)
10 Oct
Shrewsbury
0 : 1
Exeter
06 Oct
Exeter
3 : 2
Oxford Utd
03 Oct
Exeter
1 : 0
Rotherham
26 Sept
Bristol Rovers
1 : 0
Exeter
22 Sept
Cheltenham
3 : 2
Exeter
Page 1 of 6

Crewe

(Away)
10 Oct
Swindon
0 : 1
Crewe
06 Oct
Blackpool
3 : 2
Crewe
03 Oct
Crewe
3 : 1
Bristol Rovers
26 Sept
Rotherham
1 : 1
Crewe
22 Sept
Crewe
4 : 1
Aston Villa U21
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Salford 10 6 1 3 15:10 19
2 Barnet 8 5 3 0 20:11 18
3 Crewe 10 4 6 0 12:7 18
4 Gillingham 10 4 4 2 15:10 16
5 York City 9 4 3 2 17:11 15
6 Walsall 9 3 6 0 12:6 15
7 Chesterfield 10 4 3 3 17:14 15
8 Cheltenham 10 4 3 3 16:16 15
9 Bristol Rovers 10 5 0 5 15:17 15
10 Rochdale 10 4 2 4 11:12 14
11 Grimsby 10 3 4 3 13:11 13
12 Newport 10 3 4 3 13:12 13
13 Tranmere 10 2 6 2 13:13 12
14 Exeter 10 3 3 4 6:6 12
15 Accrington 10 2 5 3 13:14 11
16 Fleetwood Town 10 2 5 3 10:11 11
17 Swindon 10 3 2 5 9:14 11
18 Shrewsbury 10 3 2 5 9:15 11
19 Colchester 9 2 4 3 10:13 10
20 Rotherham 10 2 4 4 12:16 10
21 Oldham 9 2 2 5 9:13 8
22 Port Vale 8 2 2 4 4:9 8
23 Northampton 8 1 4 3 4:7 7
24 Crawley Town 8 1 2 5 8:15 5
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)