Sport Picks

Exeter vs Oxford Utd - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England

EFL Trophy St James Park, Exeter

Exeter

Tue, Oct 6, 2026

3 - 2

06:00 PM

Oxford Utd

Our Tip

Match Events

Perry T.

Assist: Oakes L.

13'

Oakes L.

28'

Golding J.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-2. This leg finished 3-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Exeter

20%

Draws

40%

Oxford Utd

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence

Form's been kind to Oxford Utd lately — more wins on the board than Exeter.
Oxford Utd are the model's pick here, at 50%.
Oxford Utd arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Exeter, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%

Exeter Clean Sheet 20%

Oxford Utd Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Exeter	Oxford Utd
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	6	12
Draws	9	6
Losses	15	10
Goals Scored	1	1.5
Goals Conceded	1.3	1.21
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 6, 2026 EFL Trophy

Exeter vs Oxford Utd

3:2

Jan 11, 2025 FA Cup

Exeter vs Oxford Utd

3:1

Jul 24, 2024 Club Friendly

Oxford Utd vs Exeter

0:1

Apr 27, 2024 League One

Exeter vs Oxford Utd

1:2

Sep 23, 2023 League One

Oxford Utd vs Exeter

3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Exeter Compare

Top Goalscorer Perry T.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Gordon J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Oxford Utd Compare

Top Goalscorer Bradney H.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Exeter 24 / 100

Oxford Utd 48 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Exeter Oxford Utd

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Oxford Utd Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Exeter's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Oxford Utd conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Exeter stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Exeter VS Oxford Utd

0.75 Goals Scored 1.63

0.63 Goals Conceded 1

50% Over 1.5 75%

13% Over 2.5 63%

0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Exeter

(Home)

06 Oct

Exeter

3 : 2

Oxford Utd

03 Oct

Exeter

1 : 0

Rotherham

26 Sept

Bristol Rovers

1 : 0

Exeter

22 Sept

Cheltenham

3 : 2

Exeter

19 Sept

Exeter

0 : 0

Tranmere

Page 1 of 6

Oxford Utd

(Away)

06 Oct

Exeter

3 : 2

Oxford Utd

19 Sept

Oxford Utd

1 : 1

Cambridge Utd

12 Sept

Oxford Utd

3 : 0

Burton

05 Sept

Leicester

0 : 4

Oxford Utd

01 Sept

Huddersfield

3 : 1

Oxford Utd

Page 1 of 6