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Extremadura UD B vs UP Plasencia

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2021/2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2021/2022 encounter between Extremadura UD B and UP Plasencia promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Extremadura UD B averages 0.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded in recent matches. UP Plasencia shows a form average of 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for Extremadura UD B, 2 wins for UP Plasencia, and 2 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 24.04.22 ended in a 2:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.17 for Extremadura UD B and 1.18 for UP Plasencia, suggesting the primary value lies in the UP Plasencia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Extremadura UD B
23%
Draws
42%
UP Plasencia
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: UP Plasencia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Extremadura UD B picked up more points recently compared to UP Plasencia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.17 vs 1.18 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 41%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33%
Extremadura UD B Clean Sheet 20%
UP Plasencia Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Extremadura UD B UP Plasencia
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 6 8
Draws 4 6
Losses 20 20
Goals Scored 0.6 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.8 1.35

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

24.04.22 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
UP Plasencia vs Extremadura UD B
2:0
19.12.21 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Extremadura UD B vs UP Plasencia
1:0
24.01.21 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
UP Plasencia vs Extremadura UD B
2:0
18.11.20 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Extremadura UD B vs UP Plasencia
0:0
05.04.20 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Extremadura UD B vs UP Plasencia
0:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Extremadura UD B

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

UP Plasencia

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Extremadura UD B 36 / 100
UP Plasencia 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Extremadura UD B UP Plasencia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: UP Plasencia or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.3%
2.86
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Extremadura UD B 39%
UP Plasencia 34%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Extremadura UD B 33%
UP Plasencia 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Extremadura UD B 35%
UP Plasencia 42%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Extremadura UD B 37%
UP Plasencia 40%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Extremadura UD B 32%
UP Plasencia 46%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Extremadura UD B 40%
UP Plasencia 48%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Extremadura UD B attacking → ← attacking UP Plasencia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Extremadura UD B have found the net in 33% of their last 30 matches.

UP Plasencia have conceded at least one goal in 79% of their last 34 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 1.00 goals per match.

Extremadura UD B remained undefeated in 0 of their last 5 overall matchups.

UP Plasencia suffered defeat in 2 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

22 Points in last 5 30
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1CD Diocesano30203761:3063
2Moralo301410639:1952
3AD Llerenense301312544:3251
4Jerez CF30147938:3049
5Arroyo301212640:3048
6CF Trujillo301212640:2748
7CD Azuaga301212641:3148
8CD Calamonte301110935:3343
9UP Plasencia301081224:2938
10SP Villafranca309101127:3037
11Olivenza FC307121131:3533
12Don Alvaro307101336:4431
13Miajadas30851730:4829
14Aceuchal30781524:4229
15CD Badajoz B30691524:3827
16Extremadura UD B30642018:540