Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025

Estrela Vendas Novas

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Fabril do Barreiro play Estrela Vendas Novas in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025. Fabril do Barreiro are favorites here. Recently, Fabril do Barreiro averaged 0.87 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. Estrela Vendas Novas averaged 0.53 goals scored and 2.47 conceded. In past meetings, Fabril do Barreiro won 2, Estrela Vendas Novas won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 16, 2025 ended 1:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Fabril do Barreiro and 0.76 for Estrela Vendas Novas. This points to a Fabril do Barreiro double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

63%

Fabril do Barreiro

22%

Draws

15%

Estrela Vendas Novas

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Fabril do Barreiro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

92% / Very High Confidence

Fabril do Barreiro picked up more points recently compared to Estrela Vendas Novas.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 0.76 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 50%

Over 3.5 Goals 30%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Fabril do Barreiro Clean Sheet 27%

Estrela Vendas Novas Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Fabril do Barreiro	Estrela Vendas Novas
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	7	2
Draws	11	2
Losses	12	26
Goals Scored	0.87	0.53
Goals Conceded	1.23	2.47
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 16, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Estrela Vendas Novas vs Fabril do Barreiro

Possession: 43% - 45% Cards: 1 - 1

1:4

Nov 30, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Fabril do Barreiro vs Estrela Vendas Novas

Possession: 49% - 55% Cards: 3 - 3

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fabril do Barreiro Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramos D.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Kong D.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Estrela Vendas Novas Compare

Top Goalscorer Zagal Ferreira R. F.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.57

Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fabril do Barreiro 62 / 100

Estrela Vendas Novas 16 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Fabril do Barreiro Estrela Vendas Novas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fabril do Barreiro Win (1)

Secondary Pick Fabril do Barreiro & Under 3.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +14.7%

1.82

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.5%

2.27

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Fabril do Barreiro attacking → ← attacking Estrela Vendas Novas

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fabril do Barreiro scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Estrela Vendas Novas let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Fabril do Barreiro went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Estrela Vendas Novas lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

32 Points in last 5 8

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.63

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lusitano GC	26	18	4	4	57:14	58
2	Amora	26	17	6	3	41:19	57
3	Sintrense	26	16	4	6	39:26	52
4	Moncarapachense	26	15	6	5	39:19	51
5	Louletano	26	15	5	6	44:20	50
6	Serpa	26	13	6	7	42:27	45
7	Estrela da Amadora B	26	7	9	10	35:31	30
8	Lagoa	26	7	9	10	26:35	30
9	Industria	26	8	5	13	35:42	29
10	Fabril do Barreiro	26	6	9	11	21:32	27
11	Moura AC	26	7	5	14	27:50	26
12	Operario	26	6	5	15	22:43	23
13	FC Barreirense	26	5	7	14	31:47	22
14	Estrela Vendas Novas	26	1	2	23	12:66	5