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Fajr Sepasi vs Arman Gohar

Iran Iran

Division 1 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This Division 1 2022/2023 encounter between Fajr Sepasi and Arman Gohar promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Fajr Sepasi averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded in recent matches. Arman Gohar shows a form average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 3 wins for Fajr Sepasi, 1 wins for Arman Gohar, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 05.03.23 ended in a 2:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 0.97 for Fajr Sepasi and 1.25 for Arman Gohar, suggesting the primary value lies in the Fajr Sepasi double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Fajr Sepasi
25%
Draws
27%
Arman Gohar
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Fajr Sepasi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • Fajr Sepasi picked up more points recently compared to Arman Gohar.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.97 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
Fajr Sepasi Clean Sheet 19%
Arman Gohar Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fajr Sepasi Arman Gohar
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 6
Draws 8 8
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.1 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.45

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

05.03.23 Azadegan League
Fajr Sepasi vs Arman Gohar
2:1
06.10.22 Azadegan League
Arman Gohar vs Fajr Sepasi
1:1
27.06.21 Azadegan League
Fajr Sepasi vs Arman Gohar
2:1
13.02.21 Azadegan League
Arman Gohar vs Fajr Sepasi
1:2
08.02.20 Azadegan League
Arman Gohar vs Fajr Sepasi
4:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Fajr Sepasi

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Arman Gohar

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fajr Sepasi Compare

Top Goalscorer Zendehrooh A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Babaei Yekta Abolfazl
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Arman Gohar Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A
0 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fajr Sepasi 47 / 100
Arman Gohar 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fajr Sepasi Arman Gohar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Fajr Sepasi or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20%
2.50
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Fajr Sepasi is expected to start with high intensity, putting pressure on the visitors early.

Fajr Sepasi 53%
Arman Gohar 22%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Arman Gohar will try to absorb the pressure and slow down the tempo of Fajr Sepasi's attacks.

Fajr Sepasi 46%
Arman Gohar 28%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Fajr Sepasi to create chances through sustained possession before the break.

Fajr Sepasi 48%
Arman Gohar 27%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments at half-time will see Fajr Sepasi vary their attacking width.

Fajr Sepasi 50%
Arman Gohar 26%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Arman Gohar, allowing Fajr Sepasi's midfield to exploit vertical gaps.

Fajr Sepasi 43%
Arman Gohar 30%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect a final offensive push from Fajr Sepasi, while Arman Gohar takes risks to salvage a result.

Fajr Sepasi 55%
Arman Gohar 31%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Fajr Sepasi attacking → ← attacking Arman Gohar

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fajr Sepasi have found the net in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Arman Gohar have conceded at least one goal in 76% of their last 29 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 3.00 goals per match.

Fajr Sepasi remained undefeated in 2 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Arman Gohar suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 26
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Shams Azar Qazvin32217466:2470
2Esteghlal Khuzestan321415347:2157
3Saipa321510730:2255
4Fajr Sepasi321411740:2553
5Kheybar Khorramabad321216432:1652
6Mes Shahr Babak321015724:2045
7Vanpars321291132:2945
8Chadormalu321112932:3145
9Pars Janoobi Jam3211101126:3143
10Darya Babol328141026:2538
11Esteghlal Molasani32716927:4237
12Khoosheh Talai328111326:3335
13Arman Gohar327101528:4531
14Shahrdari Astara325151214:2730
15Shahrdari Hamedan326111516:2929
16Khalij Fars Mahshahr32781721:4229
17Chooka Talesh324101829:5422
18Omid Vahdat Khorasan00000:00
19Shahr Khodrou00000:00
20Qashqai Shiraz00000:00
21Shahin Bandar Ameri00000:00