Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Falcon vs Atletico Gloriense

Brazil Brazil

Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Our Tip

Match Events

64' Event
Flavinho

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Falcon
30%
Draws
23%
Atletico Gloriense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Falcon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Falcon carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Falcon have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Falcon, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Falcon here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Falcon Clean Sheet 68%
Atletico Gloriense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Falcon Atletico Gloriense
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 12
Draws 3 6
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.03 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 18, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Falcon vs Atletico Gloriense
1:0
Aug 8, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Atletico Gloriense vs Falcon
0:1
Feb 3, 2026 Sergipano
Falcon vs Atletico Gloriense
2:1
Feb 5, 2024 Sergipano
Falcon vs Atletico Gloriense
3:1
Feb 5, 2023 Sergipano
Atletico Gloriense vs Falcon
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Falcon Compare

Top Goalscorer Flavinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Atletico Gloriense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Falcon 41 / 100
Atletico Gloriense 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Falcon Atletico Gloriense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Falcon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Falcon's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Atletico Gloriense has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Falcon stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Falcon VS Atletico Gloriense
1.63 Goals Scored 1.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Falcon

(Home)
30 Aug
Falcon
0 : 2
Desportiva Aracaju
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0
Falcon
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
Page 1 of 6

Atletico Gloriense

(Away)
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 0
Lagarto
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
05 Aug
America de Propria
1 : 5
Atletico Gloriense
01 Aug
Guarany SE
1 : 1
Atletico Gloriense
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Falcon 1
Atletico Gloriense 0
Desportiva Aracaju 2
Lagarto 0
Final
Falcon 0
Desportiva Aracaju 2