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Falcon vs Carmopolis

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Arthur Cacule
51' Event
Thierry
63' Event
Sorriso

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano 2025 game between Falcon and Carmopolis finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Falcon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Falcon
30%
Draws
9%
Carmopolis
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Falcon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Carmopolis haven't matched Falcon's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Falcon a 61% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Sergipano 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Falcon Clean Sheet 68%
Carmopolis Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Falcon Carmopolis
Matches Played 32 20
Wins 15 3
Draws 4 5
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.09 1
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 10, 2025 Sergipano
Falcon vs Carmopolis
3:2
Mar 2, 2024 Sergipano
Falcon vs Carmopolis
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Falcon Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Lopes
2 Goals
Assists Leader Arthur Cacule
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Carmopolis Compare

Top Goalscorer Thierry
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sorriso
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Falcon 95 / 100
Carmopolis 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Falcon Carmopolis

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Falcon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Falcon remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Falcon's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Carmopolis has conceded goals in 75% of their last 20 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Falcon VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Falcon

(Home)
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0
Falcon
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
05 Aug
Falcon
2 : 0
Desportiva Aracaju
Page 1 of 7

Carmopolis

(Away)
01 Mar
Guarany SE
2 : 1
Carmopolis
22 Feb
Carmopolis
1 : 1
Lagarto
15 Feb
Carmopolis
1 : 1
America de Propria
10 Feb
Falcon
3 : 2
Carmopolis
03 Feb
Barra SE
3 : 2
Carmopolis
Page 1 of 4

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Confianca 9 6 2 1 26:8 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 4 0 18:7 19
3 Lagarto 9 5 2 2 20:8 17
4 America de Propria 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 4 1 4 9:19 13
6 Falcon 9 4 0 5 11:15 12
7 Sergipe 9 3 2 4 10:11 11
8 Dorense 9 2 2 5 7:12 8
9 Barra SE 9 2 1 6 8:27 7
10 Carmopolis 9 0 3 6 10:16 3
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)