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Falcon vs Itabaiana

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano Estadio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Batistao), Aracaju
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Luan Silva
(Penalty)
64' Event
Yago Henrique
88'
Andre Castro

AI Match Summary

Itabaiana in this Sergipano matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Itabaiana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Falcon
20%
Draws
7%
Itabaiana
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Falcon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Falcon lately — more wins on the board than Itabaiana.
  • Model gives Falcon a 73% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Sergipano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Itabaiana have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.8%
Falcon Clean Sheet 20%
Itabaiana Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Falcon Itabaiana
Matches Played 30 38
Wins 14 11
Draws 3 12
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.03 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 20, 2026 Sergipano
Itabaiana vs Falcon
1:0
Jan 16, 2026 Sergipano
Falcon vs Itabaiana
0:2
Feb 1, 2025 Sergipano
Itabaiana vs Falcon
4:0
Feb 18, 2024 Sergipano
Itabaiana vs Falcon
4:0
Mar 26, 2023 Sergipano
Itabaiana vs Falcon
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Falcon Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Itabaiana Compare

Top Goalscorer Yago Henrique
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Falcon 85 / 100
Itabaiana 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Falcon Itabaiana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Falcon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Falcon scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Itabaiana's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 38 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Falcon went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Falcon VS Itabaiana
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Falcon

(Home)
30 Aug
Falcon
0 : 2
Desportiva Aracaju
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0
Falcon
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
Page 1 of 6

Itabaiana

(Away)
29 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2
Botafogo PB
23 Aug
Maranhao
4 : 1
Itabaiana
16 Aug
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
1 : 0
Itabaiana
09 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2
SER Caxias do Sul
25 Jul
Confianca
1 : 1
Itabaiana
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sergipe 9 6 2 1 13:6 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 2 2 12:4 17
3 Lagarto 9 4 4 1 16:8 16
4 Confianca 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 3 3 3 10:10 12
6 America de Propria 9 2 6 1 8:8 12
7 Falcon 9 3 2 4 8:10 11
8 Atletico Gloriense 9 3 1 5 14:13 10
9 Dorense 9 2 1 6 9:23 7
10 Desportiva Aracaju 9 0 2 7 5:17 2
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)