Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Falkenberg vs Varberg

Sweden Sweden

Superettan Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Falkenberg
Our Tip

Match Events

43'
Vidjeskog I.
46' Event
Borgelin S.
Assist: Dahlstrom N.
58'
Andersson A.

AI Match Summary

The Superettan game between Falkenberg and Varberg finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Varberg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Falkenberg
28%
Draws
22%
Varberg
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Falkenberg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Varberg haven't matched Falkenberg's recent run of results.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Falkenberg taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Falkenberg Clean Sheet 68%
Varberg Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Falkenberg Varberg
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 16 15
Draws 6 4
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 2.38 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 Superettan
Falkenberg vs Varberg
0:3
Aug 30, 2025 Superettan
Varberg vs Falkenberg
3:2
Mar 29, 2025 Superettan
Falkenberg vs Varberg
2:2
Feb 10, 2024 Club Friendly
Falkenberg vs Varberg
0:3
Jan 28, 2023 Club Friendly
Varberg vs Falkenberg
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Falkenberg Compare

Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Varberg Compare

Top Goalscorer Borgelin S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Winbo A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Falkenberg 59 / 100
Varberg 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Falkenberg Varberg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FAL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Falkenberg found the back of the net in 96% of recent matches (27 games).

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Varberg conceded in 67% of 27 recent games.

Solid form: Falkenberg remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Falkenberg VS Varberg
2.38 Goals Scored 2.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Falkenberg

(Home)
26 Jul
Sundsvall
1 : 2
Falkenberg
21 Jul
Falkenberg
2 : 3
Helsingborg
17 Jul
Falkenberg
6 : 0
Laholms
11 Jul
Falkenberg
1 : 2
Landskrona
26 Jun
Brage
2 : 4
Falkenberg
Page 1 of 6

Varberg

(Away)
18 Jul
Oddevold
2 : 4
Varberg
11 Jul
Varberg
4 : 2
Norrby
27 Jun
Varberg
2 : 1
Oster
22 Jun
Varberg
2 : 3
Landskrona
15 Jun
Norrkoping
2 : 0
Varberg
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Falkenberg1694332:2431
2Varberg1593332:1930
3Norrkoping1592426:1029
4Ostersund1675426:2126
5Landskrona1574422:1625
6Nordic United1574425:2225
7Oster1572624:2523
8Helsingborg1572629:3123
9Ljungskile1664623:2122
10Oddevold1555528:2620
11Sandviken1654725:2519
12Norrby1639421:2318
13Brage1645728:2917
14Orebro1535713:2214
15Varnamo16321117:3411
16Sundsvall16301313:369
Promotion - Allsvenskan 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Allsvenskan (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 - Norra (Promotion)