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Famalicao vs Tondela

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal de Famalicao
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
De Amorim M.
Assist: Elisor S.
46'
Sub
Hodge J. In: Siebatcheu J.
Out: Hodge J.
51'
Afonso J.

AI Match Summary

Famalicao host Tondela in the Liga Portugal 2025/2026. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Recent numbers: Famalicao at 1.75 goals for, 0.88 against; Tondela at 0.88 for, 1.63 against. Head-to-head, Famalicao have won 3 to Tondela's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Jan 25, 2026, ending 3:0. xG projections (1.69 - 0.88) back Famalicao to edge this. Famalicao in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Famalicao
6%
Draws
4%
Tondela
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Famalicao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Famalicao has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Tondela.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Famalicao.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Liga Portugal 2025/2026 provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Famalicao Clean Sheet 68%
Tondela Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Famalicao Tondela
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 13 6
Draws 7 8
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 1.75 0.88
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Liga Portugal
Famalicao vs Tondela
3:0
Aug 16, 2025 Liga Portugal
Tondela vs Famalicao
0:1
Dec 9, 2022 League Cup
Famalicao vs Tondela
0:0
Feb 26, 2022 Liga Portugal
Famalicao vs Tondela
2:1
Sep 25, 2021 Liga Portugal
Tondela vs Famalicao
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Famalicao Compare

Top Goalscorer De Amorim M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gil Dias
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Tondela Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Famalicao 95 / 100
Tondela 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Famalicao Tondela

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FAM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Famalicao scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Tondela let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Famalicao went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Tondela lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Famalicao VS Tondela
1.75 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1FC Porto34284266:1888
2Sporting CP34257289:2482
3Benfica342311074:2580
4Braga341611764:3659
5Famalicao341511842:2956
6Gil Vicente3413111047:3850
7Moreirense341271537:4943
8Arouca341261647:6442
9Vitoria Guimaraes341261639:5142
10Estoril341091554:5739
11Alverca341091535:5239
12Rio Ave348121435:5736
13Santa Clara34991632:4136
14Nacional34971837:4534
15Estrela da Amadora346121638:5630
16Casa Pia346121631:5730
17Tondela346101827:5528
18AFS343121927:6721