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Fano vs Montegiorgio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Zanni N.
17' Event
Monza E.
45' Event
Severini M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 game between Fano and Montegiorgio finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Fano
15%
Draws
26%
Montegiorgio
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Fano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Fano come out ahead of Montegiorgio on wins alone.
  • Model gives Fano a 59% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Fano Clean Sheet 68%
Montegiorgio Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fano Montegiorgio
Matches Played 37 30
Wins 12 6
Draws 11 9
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 1.3 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2023 Serie D - Group F
Fano vs Montegiorgio
3:1
Dec 4, 2022 Serie D - Group F
Montegiorgio vs Fano
1:2
Mar 27, 2022 Serie D - Group F
Fano vs Montegiorgio
1:1
Nov 7, 2021 Serie D - Group F
Montegiorgio vs Fano
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fano Compare

Top Goalscorer Zanni N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Severini M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Montegiorgio Compare

Top Goalscorer Monza E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fano 86 / 100
Montegiorgio 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fano Montegiorgio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fano found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (37 games).

Defensive concern: Montegiorgio conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Fano remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Fano VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Fano

(Home)
05 May
Fano
5 : 2
Real Monterotondo
28 Apr
Avezzano
2 : 0
Fano
21 Apr
AS Sora
2 : 1
Fano
14 Apr
Fano
1 : 0
Roma City
07 Apr
Tivoli Calcio
2 : 2
Fano
Page 1 of 8

Montegiorgio

(Away)
14 May
Notaresco Calcio
2 : 1
Montegiorgio
07 May
Montegiorgio
2 : 1
Vigor Senigallia
30 Apr
Vastogirardi
2 : 0
Montegiorgio
23 Apr
Montegiorgio
0 : 1
Matese
16 Apr
Fano
3 : 1
Montegiorgio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pineto 34 21 9 4 50:21 72
2 Vigor Senigallia 34 20 7 7 52:34 67
3 Trastevere Calcio 34 18 8 8 56:41 62
4 Fano 34 18 6 10 45:34 60
5 Cynthialbalonga 34 13 13 8 32:23 52
6 Matese 34 12 11 11 44:38 47
7 Sambenedettese 34 13 8 13 39:37 46
8 Calcio Chieti 34 12 10 12 29:27 46
9 Porto D'Ascoli 34 10 15 9 28:27 45
10 Vastogirardi 34 10 13 11 30:31 42
11 Nuova Florida 34 11 9 14 33:44 42
12 Avezzano 34 11 7 16 35:41 40
13 Roma City 34 9 10 15 29:42 37
14 Vastese 34 8 12 14 37:43 36
15 Termoli 34 5 19 10 25:34 34
16 Notaresco Calcio 34 6 13 15 23:41 31
17 Montegiorgio 34 7 10 17 21:34 31
18 US Tolentino 34 7 10 17 25:41 31
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 (Play Out)