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Fasil Kenema vs Bahir Dar Kenema

Ethiopia Ethiopia

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Fasil Kenema play Bahir Dar Kenema in the Premier League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Fasil Kenema averaged 0.7 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. Bahir Dar Kenema averaged 0.67 goals scored and 0.73 conceded. In past meetings, Fasil Kenema won 0, Bahir Dar Kenema won 2, and they drew 3. Their last match on May 6, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Fasil Kenema and 0.94 for Bahir Dar Kenema. This points to a Fasil Kenema double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Fasil Kenema
35%
Draws
32%
Bahir Dar Kenema
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Fasil Kenema

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Fasil Kenema picked up more points recently compared to Bahir Dar Kenema.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 46%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 12%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Fasil Kenema Clean Sheet 24%
Bahir Dar Kenema Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 41%
Second Half Goal 44%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fasil Kenema Bahir Dar Kenema
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 6
Draws 9 18
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 0.7 0.67
Goals Conceded 0.87 0.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2026 Premier League
Fasil Kenema vs Bahir Dar Kenema
0:2
Dec 24, 2025 Premier League
Bahir Dar Kenema vs Fasil Kenema
0:0
Mar 6, 2025 Premier League
Fasil Kenema vs Bahir Dar Kenema
0:0
Feb 9, 2025 Premier League
Bahir Dar Kenema vs Fasil Kenema
2:1
May 9, 2024 Premier League
Fasil Kenema vs Bahir Dar Kenema
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fasil Kenema Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Bahir Dar Kenema Compare

Top Goalscorer Gebremichael A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Semu B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fasil Kenema 35 / 100
Bahir Dar Kenema 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fasil Kenema Bahir Dar Kenema

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Fasil Kenema or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +32%
4.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +42.8%
7.14
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Fasil Kenema attacking → ← attacking Bahir Dar Kenema

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fasil Kenema scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Bahir Dar Kenema let in goals in 47% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Fasil Kenema went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Bahir Dar Kenema lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 36
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sidama Bunna381911843:2368
2Negele Arsi Ketema FC381515837:3060
3Mechal SC381415944:3157
4Fasil Kenema3814131128:2855
5Ethio Electric S.C.3813151032:2654
6St. Georges3814121233:3154
7Welayta Dicha381118937:3151
8Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee)3813121340:3951
9Hawassa3812141237:3250
10Sheger Ketema FC3811171034:3150
11Bahir Dar Kenema38921828:2848
12Hadiya Hossana3811151231:3548
13Ethiopia Nigd Bank3811141345:4547
14Ethiopian Insurance3810161230:3146
15Adama City3810161235:3946
16Welwalo Adigrat3810161232:3646
17Shire Endaselassie389151424:3242
18Dire Dawa389151427:4142
19Mekelle 70 Enderta FC388161426:3840
20Arba Menche387141730:4635