Sport Picks
Match Events
67'
67'
Debebe M.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League game between Fasil Kenema and Hawassa finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fasil Kenema.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
20%
29%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Fasil Kenema
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Fasil Kenema carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Fasil Kenema's way, sitting at 50%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Fasil Kenema Clean Sheet 68%
Hawassa Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Fasil Kenema | Hawassa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 8 |
| Draws | 9 | 13 |
| Losses | 11 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 0.7 | 0.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.87 | 0.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 0.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 9, 2026 Premier League
Fasil Kenema vs Hawassa
1:0
Nov 26, 2025 Premier League
Hawassa vs Fasil Kenema
0:1
May 26, 2025 Premier League
Hawassa vs Fasil Kenema
1:1
Jan 3, 2025 Premier League
Fasil Kenema vs Hawassa
0:0
Mar 1, 2024 Premier League
Fasil Kenema vs Hawassa
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Fasil Kenema Compare
Top Goalscorer Debebe M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Hawassa Compare
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Fasil Kenema 59 / 100
Hawassa 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Fasil Kenema Hawassa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick FAS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Hawassa has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.
Recent resilience: Fasil Kenema stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Attacking prowess: Fasil Kenema scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.
H2H data points to 1.40 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Fasil Kenema VS Hawassa
1 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Fasil Kenema
(Home) 01 Jul
Fasil Kenema
1 : 0 Ethiopian Insurance
26 Jun
St. Georges
1 : 0 Fasil Kenema
22 Jun
Fasil Kenema
2 : 0 Arba Menche
15 Jun
Hadiya Hossana
0 : 1 Fasil Kenema
29 May
Fasil Kenema
0 : 1 Sheger Ketema FC
Page 1 of 6
01 Jul
Fasil Kenema
1 : 0 Ethiopian Insurance
22 Jun
Fasil Kenema
2 : 0 Arba Menche
29 May
Fasil Kenema
0 : 1 Sheger Ketema FC
16 May
Fasil Kenema
3 : 1 Adama City
06 May
Fasil Kenema
0 : 2 Bahir Dar Kenema
Page 1 of 3
Hawassa
(Away) 02 Jul
Hawassa
2 : 3 Adama City
28 Jun
Ethio Electric S.C.
1 : 1 Hawassa
21 Jun
Hawassa
0 : 0 Bahir Dar Kenema
15 Jun
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
2 : 1 Hawassa
28 May
Hawassa
1 : 0 Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee)
Page 1 of 6
28 Jun
Ethio Electric S.C.
1 : 1 Hawassa
15 Jun
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
2 : 1 Hawassa
20 May
St. Georges
1 : 0 Hawassa
09 May
Hadiya Hossana
1 : 0 Hawassa
29 Apr
Ethiopian Insurance
2 : 1 Hawassa
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sidama Bunna | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 43:23 | 68 |
| 2 | Negele Arsi Ketema FC | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 37:30 | 60 |
| 3 | Mechal SC | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 44:31 | 57 |
| 4 | Fasil Kenema | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 28:28 | 55 |
| 5 | Ethio Electric S.C. | 38 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 32:26 | 54 |
| 6 | St. Georges | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 33:31 | 54 |
| 7 | Welayta Dicha | 38 | 11 | 18 | 9 | 37:31 | 51 |
| 8 | Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 40:39 | 51 |
| 9 | Hawassa | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 37:32 | 50 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema FC | 38 | 11 | 17 | 10 | 34:31 | 50 |
| 11 | Bahir Dar Kenema | 38 | 9 | 21 | 8 | 28:28 | 48 |
| 12 | Hadiya Hossana | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 31:35 | 48 |
| 13 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 45:45 | 47 |
| 14 | Ethiopian Insurance | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 30:31 | 46 |
| 15 | Adama City | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 35:39 | 46 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 32:36 | 46 |
| 17 | Shire Endaselassie | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 24:32 | 42 |
| 18 | Dire Dawa | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 27:41 | 42 |
| 19 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 26:38 | 40 |
| 20 | Arba Menche | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 30:46 | 35 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
