Sport Picks
FBC Melgar vs AD Tarma
Peru
Liga 1 Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustin (UNSA), Arequipa 
Match Events
45'
45'
Cuesta B.
Assist: Cabanillas N.
63'
63'
Cuesta B.
Assist: Quagliata N.
68'
68'
Sub
Cuesta B. In: D'Arrigo J.
Out: Cuesta B.
AI Match Summary
The Liga 1 game between FBC Melgar and AD Tarma finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FBC Melgar.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
20%
29%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: FBC Melgar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- FBC Melgar carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans FBC Melgar's way, sitting at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
FBC Melgar Clean Sheet 20%
AD Tarma Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | FBC Melgar | AD Tarma |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 31 |
| Wins | 11 | 8 |
| Draws | 9 | 8 |
| Losses | 9 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.55 | 1.16 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.17 | 1.45 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 6, 2026 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs AD Tarma
3:0
Mar 20, 2026 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs FBC Melgar
1:1
Aug 24, 2025 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs FBC Melgar
2:2
Apr 5, 2025 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs AD Tarma
4:0
Aug 16, 2024 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs FBC Melgar
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
FBC Melgar Compare
Top Goalscorer Cuesta B.
2 Goals Assists Leader Alcantar J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
AD Tarma Compare
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
FBC Melgar 85 / 100
AD Tarma 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
FBC Melgar AD Tarma
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick FBC Melgar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
FBC Melgar scored in 79% of their last 29 games.
AD Tarma has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Solid form: FBC Melgar remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
FBC Melgar VS AD Tarma
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
FBC Melgar
(Home) 06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0 AD Tarma
01 Sept
Atletico Grau
1 : 0 FBC Melgar
23 Aug
FBC Melgar
1 : 1 A. Lima
15 Aug
Los Chankas
0 : 3 FBC Melgar
09 Aug
FBC Melgar
2 : 4 FC Cajamarca
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0 AD Tarma
23 Aug
FBC Melgar
1 : 1 A. Lima
09 Aug
FBC Melgar
2 : 4 FC Cajamarca
26 Jul
FBC Melgar
2 : 1 Sporting Cristal
29 Jun
FBC Melgar
0 : 0 Moquegua
Page 1 of 3
AD Tarma
(Away) 06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0 AD Tarma
30 Aug
AD Tarma
1 : 3 Sport Huancayo
27 Aug
AD Tarma
2 : 0 Moquegua
22 Aug
Juan Pablo II
5 : 1 AD Tarma
15 Aug
AD Tarma
1 : 1 Alianza Atl.
Page 1 of 7
06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0 AD Tarma
22 Aug
Juan Pablo II
5 : 1 AD Tarma
08 Aug
Cajamarca
1 : 1 AD Tarma
25 Jul
Sport Boys
2 : 0 AD Tarma
10 Jul
Cienciano
2 : 3 AD Tarma
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14:5 | 19 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17:11 | 17 |
| 3 | Alianza Atl. | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:13 | 16 |
| 4 | Cusco | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 17:12 | 15 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14:8 | 14 |
| 6 | Sport Boys | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12:6 | 14 |
| 7 | Sporting Cristal | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15:8 | 13 |
| 8 | A. Lima | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 11:8 | 13 |
| 9 | Sport Huancayo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12:11 | 13 |
| 10 | Atletico Grau | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10:9 | 13 |
| 11 | Juan Pablo II | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14:11 | 12 |
| 12 | Comerciantes Unidos | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 16:15 | 9 |
| 13 | Cienciano | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 14 | Moquegua | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6:11 | 7 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15:21 | 7 |
| 16 | Los Chankas | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 17 | Cajamarca | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8:19 | 2 |
| 18 | AD Tarma | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5:18 | 2 |
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)
