Sport Picks
FC Astana vs Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakhstan
Premier League Astana Arena 
AI Match Summary
FC Astana play Ertis Pavlodar in the Premier League. It looks like a close match. Recently, FC Astana averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.32 conceded. Ertis Pavlodar averaged 1.89 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. In past meetings, FC Astana won 1, Ertis Pavlodar won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Jun 14, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for FC Astana and 0.88 for Ertis Pavlodar. This points to a FC Astana double chance or over markets.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- FC Astana picked up more points recently compared to Ertis Pavlodar.
- Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 0.88 xG).
- Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | FC Astana | Ertis Pavlodar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 12 | 10 |
| Draws | 10 | 9 |
| Losses | 6 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.75 | 1.89 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.32 | 1.21 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 1.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
FC Astana Compare
Ertis Pavlodar Compare
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Value Bet Detector (+EV)
Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds
Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations
Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
FC Astana scored in 79% of their last 28 games.
Ertis Pavlodar let in goals in 81% of their last 27 matches.
Games between these two average 0.80 goals.
FC Astana went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Ertis Pavlodar lost 2 of their last 5 games.
Interactive Team Comparison Slider
Side-by-side comparison of team metrics
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 16 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 28:9 | 40 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 34:12 | 39 |
| 3 | Okzhetpes | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 21:21 | 27 |
| 4 | Yelimay Semey | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 24:19 | 26 |
| 5 | FC Astana | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 6 | Aktobe | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 | Ulytau | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 13:15 | 23 |
| 8 | Atyrau | 16 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 12:13 | 18 |
| 9 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 21:24 | 18 |
| 10 | Zhenis | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13:19 | 18 |
| 11 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 13:19 | 18 |
| 12 | Kyzylzhar | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 17:25 | 15 |
| 13 | Tobol | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 16:24 | 15 |
| 14 | Kaspij Aktau | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12:20 | 14 |
| 15 | Altai | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 11:18 | 13 |
| 16 | Ertis Pavlodar | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 14:21 | 11 |