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FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Astana Arena, Astana
FC Astana Logo

FC Astana

1 - 0
FT
Kairat Almaty Logo

Kairat Almaty

Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Sadybekov A.
14' Event
Karimov R.
Assist: Bartolec K.
54'
Sub
Kasym A. In: Miladinovic I.
Out: Kasym A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

FC Astana in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored FC Astana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
FC Astana
15%
Draws
42%
Kairat Almaty
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Astana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Kairat Almaty lately — more wins on the board than FC Astana.
  • Win probability leans FC Astana's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
FC Astana Clean Sheet 68%
Kairat Almaty Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Astana Kairat Almaty
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 15 19
Draws 5 3
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.57 1.73
Goals Conceded 1.18 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 Premier League
FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty
1:0
Apr 5, 2026 Premier League
Kairat Almaty vs FC Astana
4:0
Oct 26, 2025 Premier League
Kairat Almaty vs FC Astana
1:1
Mar 2, 2025 Premier League
FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty
1:1
Sep 1, 2024 Premier League
Kairat Almaty vs FC Astana
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Astana Compare

Top Goalscorer Karimov R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Kairat Almaty Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Astana 77 / 100
Kairat Almaty 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Astana Kairat Almaty

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Astana Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: FC Astana scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Kairat Almaty has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: FC Astana stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Astana VS Kairat Almaty
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Astana

(Home)
10 Oct
Tobol
2 : 1
FC Astana
17 Sept
FC Astana
1 : 0
Kairat Almaty
12 Sept
Ordabasy
1 : 0
FC Astana
06 Sept
FC Astana
4 : 0
Yelimay Semey
30 Aug
Atyrau
2 : 3
FC Astana
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Kairat Almaty

(Away)
10 Oct
Kairat Almaty
1 : 0
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
17 Sept
FC Astana
1 : 0
Kairat Almaty
13 Sept
Kairat Almaty
1 : 4
Tobol
09 Sept
Kairat Almaty
3 : 0
Zhenis
05 Sept
Kaspij Aktau
0 : 3
Kairat Almaty
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 26 19 4 3 51:18 61
2 Kairat Almaty 27 18 6 3 52:20 60
3 FC Astana 26 14 6 6 43:27 48
4 Aktobe 27 13 6 8 41:32 45
5 Okzhetpes 26 13 6 7 41:35 45
6 Yelimay Semey 26 10 8 8 36:36 38
7 Tobol 27 11 4 12 35:36 37
8 Zhenis 27 8 8 11 27:34 32
9 Ulytau 26 8 8 10 24:32 32
10 Kaspij Aktau 26 8 5 13 27:36 29
11 Kyzylzhar 27 7 6 14 28:40 27
12 Atyrau 26 5 11 10 20:29 26
13 Ertis Pavlodar 26 6 8 12 26:36 26
14 Altai 26 6 7 13 26:36 25
15 Kaisar Kyzylorda 26 4 12 10 22:33 24
16 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 27 5 7 15 26:45 22
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)