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FC Astana vs Yelimay Semey - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Astana Arena, Astana
FC Astana Logo

FC Astana

4 - 0
FT
Yelimay Semey Logo

Yelimay Semey

Our Tip

Match Events

29'
Tulubay A.
40' Event
Basic I.
Assist: Islamkhan B.
42'
Ashirbek A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

FC Astana in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored FC Astana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
FC Astana
15%
Draws
34%
Yelimay Semey
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Astana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to FC Astana lately — more wins on the board than Yelimay Semey.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on FC Astana taking it.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
FC Astana Clean Sheet 20%
Yelimay Semey Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Astana Yelimay Semey
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 11
Draws 6 8
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.52 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Premier League
FC Astana vs Yelimay Semey
4:0
Apr 18, 2026 Premier League
Yelimay Semey vs FC Astana
2:2
Sep 14, 2025 Premier League
FC Astana vs Yelimay Semey
3:3
May 30, 2025 Premier League
Yelimay Semey vs FC Astana
0:2
Oct 20, 2024 Premier League
Yelimay Semey vs FC Astana
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Astana Compare

Top Goalscorer Basic I.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Tomasov M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Yelimay Semey Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Astana 85 / 100
Yelimay Semey 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Astana Yelimay Semey

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Astana Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

FC Astana scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Yelimay Semey let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

FC Astana went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Astana VS Yelimay Semey
2.13 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Astana

(Home)
10 Oct
Tobol
2 : 1
FC Astana
17 Sept
FC Astana
1 : 0
Kairat Almaty
12 Sept
Ordabasy
1 : 0
FC Astana
06 Sept
FC Astana
4 : 0
Yelimay Semey
30 Aug
Atyrau
2 : 3
FC Astana
Page 1 of 6

Yelimay Semey

(Away)
10 Oct
Yelimay Semey
1 : 3
Aktobe
17 Sept
Tobol
0 : 2
Yelimay Semey
12 Sept
Yelimay Semey
2 : 1
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
06 Sept
FC Astana
4 : 0
Yelimay Semey
31 Aug
Yelimay Semey
0 : 2
Kairat Almaty
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 26 19 4 3 51:18 61
2 Kairat Almaty 26 17 6 3 51:20 57
3 FC Astana 25 14 6 5 42:25 48
4 Okzhetpes 26 13 6 7 41:35 45
5 Aktobe 26 12 6 8 38:31 42
6 Yelimay Semey 25 10 8 7 35:33 38
7 Tobol 26 10 4 12 33:35 34
8 Zhenis 26 8 8 10 26:32 32
9 Ulytau 26 8 8 10 24:32 32
10 Kaspij Aktau 26 8 5 13 27:36 29
11 Kyzylzhar 27 7 6 14 28:40 27
12 Ertis Pavlodar 26 6 8 12 26:36 26
13 Altai 26 6 7 13 26:36 25
14 Kaisar Kyzylorda 26 4 12 10 22:33 24
15 Atyrau 25 4 11 10 18:28 23
16 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 26 5 7 14 26:44 22
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)