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FC Barreirense vs Vitoria Setubal Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Caleb

AI Match Summary

Vitoria Setubal in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vitoria Setubal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
FC Barreirense
30%
Draws
41%
Vitoria Setubal
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vitoria Setubal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Vitoria Setubal have won more games recently than FC Barreirense.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 94%
Over 1.5 Goals 83.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
FC Barreirense Clean Sheet 68%
Vitoria Setubal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Barreirense Vitoria Setubal
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 5 15
Draws 8 5
Losses 18 9
Goals Scored 1.13 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.81 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.79
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 3, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
FC Barreirense vs Vitoria Setubal
0:1
Nov 5, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Vitoria Setubal vs FC Barreirense
4:0
Jun 10, 1979 Liga Portugal
FC Barreirense vs Vitoria Setubal
0:1
Dec 23, 1978 Liga Portugal
Vitoria Setubal vs FC Barreirense
0:0
Jan 27, 1974 Liga Portugal
Vitoria Setubal vs FC Barreirense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Barreirense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Vitoria Setubal Compare

Top Goalscorer Caleb
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.63
Avg xA / game 0.99

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Barreirense 41 / 100
Vitoria Setubal 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Barreirense Vitoria Setubal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Barreirense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Barreirense found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (31 games).

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: FC Barreirense stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Vitoria Setubal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

FC Barreirense VS Vitoria Setubal
1.5 Goals Scored 1.33
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 67%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Barreirense

(Home)
13 Apr
FC Barreirense
1 : 2
Moncarapachense
06 Apr
Amora
1 : 0
FC Barreirense
29 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
2 : 3
FC Barreirense
16 Mar
FC Barreirense
1 : 1
Lagoa
09 Mar
Fabril do Barreiro
1 : 1
FC Barreirense
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Vitoria Setubal

(Away)
20 Sept
Alcains
0 : 2
Vitoria Setubal
13 Sept
Vitoria Setubal
2 : 2
Juv. Evora
06 Sept
Lajense
0 : 1
Vitoria Setubal
23 Aug
Vitoria Setubal
1 : 3
Amora
16 Aug
Serpa
4 : 2
Vitoria Setubal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Setubal 26 16 5 5 45:21 53
2 Moncarapachense 26 14 7 5 29:17 49
3 Lusitano GC 26 11 13 2 28:9 46
4 Louletano 26 11 8 7 37:26 41
5 Sintrense 26 10 10 6 29:26 40
6 O Elvas CAD 26 10 9 7 34:27 39
7 FC Barreirense 26 11 6 9 31:25 39
8 Fabril do Barreiro 26 8 10 8 29:24 34
9 Serpa 26 10 4 12 27:30 34
10 Juv. Evora 26 8 8 10 26:25 32
11 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 8 6 12 26:45 30
12 Oriental 26 7 8 11 31:48 29
13 Real SC 26 3 5 18 24:46 14
14 Imortal 26 2 7 17 19:46 13
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group 2023/2024 (Main)