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FC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Heroes de San Ramon
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FC Cajamarca play FBC Melgar in the Liga 1. It looks like a close match. Recently, FC Cajamarca averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. FBC Melgar averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, FC Cajamarca won 1, FBC Melgar won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 21, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for FC Cajamarca and 1.56 for FBC Melgar. This points to a FC Cajamarca double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
FC Cajamarca
31%
Draws
32%
FBC Melgar
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: FC Cajamarca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • FC Cajamarca picked up more points recently compared to FBC Melgar.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
FC Cajamarca Clean Sheet 15%
FBC Melgar Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Cajamarca FBC Melgar
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 12
Draws 9 9
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.45 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Liga 1
FC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Cajamarca Compare

Top Goalscorer Barcos H.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

FBC Melgar Compare

Top Goalscorer Deneumostier A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Cajamarca 36 / 100
FBC Melgar 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Cajamarca FBC Melgar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: FC Cajamarca or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

FC Cajamarca attacking → ← attacking FBC Melgar

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Cajamarca scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

FBC Melgar let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

FC Cajamarca went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

FBC Melgar lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 45
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1A. Lima17124130:840
2Los Chankas17104325:2134
3Cienciano17103434:2233
4Universitario de Deportes1785424:1529
5FBC Melgar1784529:2028
6Cusco1783621:2427
7Deportivo Garcilaso1775521:1826
8Alianza Atl.1756620:1821
9Comerciantes Unidos1756618:2021
10AD Tarma1755722:2120
11Sport Boys1755715:1920
12Sporting Cristal1754828:3019
13Cajamarca1746721:2618
14Moquegua1753917:2418
15FC Cajamarca1745823:2817
16Atletico Grau1744912:1816
17Sport Huancayo1744921:3116
18Juan Pablo II1744922:4016