Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FC Chernihiv vs Kryvbas

Ukraine Ukraine

Ukrainian Cup Chernihiv Stadium, Černihiv
Wed, Sep 17, 2025
3 - 0
10:00 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Tverdokhlib Y.
(Penalty)
47' Event
Koydan V.
(Penalty)
1' Event
Novikov A.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Ukrainian Cup. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. FC Chernihiv have averaged 0.88 scored and 1.25 conceded recently, against Kryvbas's 1.5 scored and 1.88 conceded. Past meetings favor FC Chernihiv slightly — 1-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 17, 2025, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 1.38 vs 1.38, favoring FC Chernihiv. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
FC Chernihiv
20%
Draws
38%
Kryvbas
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: FC Chernihiv

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Kryvbas carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives FC Chernihiv a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Kryvbas arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor FC Chernihiv, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
FC Chernihiv Clean Sheet 17%
Kryvbas Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Chernihiv Kryvbas
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 8 9
Draws 6 10
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 0.88 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2025 Ukrainian Cup
FC Chernihiv vs Kryvbas
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Chernihiv 41 / 100
Kryvbas 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Chernihiv Kryvbas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: FC Chernihiv scored in 74% of their last 27 outings.

Kryvbas let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Difficult form: Kryvbas registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Chernihiv VS Kryvbas
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Chernihiv

(Home)
18 Jul
Livyi Bereg
2 : 1
FC Chernihiv
15 Jul
Obolon
3 : 2
FC Chernihiv
01 Jun
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1 : 0
FC Chernihiv
29 May
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya
0 : 0
FC Chernihiv
26 May
FC Chernihiv
1 : 2
Metalist Kharkiv
Page 1 of 6

Kryvbas

(Away)
14 Jul
Kryvbas
2 : 1
Gent
11 Jul
Waregem
2 : 1
Kryvbas
07 Jul
Kryvbas
2 : 4
Lommel SK
01 Jul
Ch. Odesa
2 : 1
Kryvbas
27 Jun
Kryvbas
1 : 2
Inhulets
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Denhoff Denykhivka3
Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998)2
Dinaz Vyshgorod0
Ahrobiznes Volochysk3
Kolos Polonne1
Naftovyk Dolyna0
FC Kharkiv2
Obolon0
Lokomotyv Kyiv3
Kolos Kovalivka2
Korosten0
Veres Rivne4
Nyva Vinnytsya3
UCSA0
Hirnyk-Sport1
Trostyanets0
FC Chernihiv1
Atlet Kiev0
Kulikiv0
Kryvbas3
FC Vilkhivtsi1
Olympia Savyntsi2
Chaika Petropavlivska Borshchahivka0
Lisne4
Epitsentr1
Ahrotekh Tyshkivka2
Ch. Odesa2
Zorya1
Fazenda0
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya1
FC Uzhhorod1
Fenix Mariupol2
Metalist Kharkiv2
Mayak Sarny0
LNZ Cherkasy1
Probiy Horodenka0
Kormil Yavoriv1
Rukh Lviv2
TBD-
Polissya Zhytomyr-
Lozova0
Bukovyna3
Penuel Kryvyi Rih0
Karpaty Lviv8
Real Pharma Odesa0
Nyva Ternopil3
Iron1
SC Poltava5
Oleksandriya-
TBD-
TBD-
Dynamo Kyiv-
Polissya Stavky3
Rebel Kyiv0
TBD-
Shakhtar-
Livyi Bereg1
Kudrivka0
Victoria1
Vorskla Poltava0
Karbon Cherkasy1
Inhulets2
FC Podillya Khmelnytskyi1
Skala 19110
1/16-finals
Denhoff Denykhivka0
Ahrobiznes Volochysk2
Kolos Polonne1
FC Kharkiv4
Lokomotyv Kyiv1
Veres Rivne0
Nyva Vinnytsya7
Hirnyk-Sport0
FC Chernihiv3
Kryvbas0
Olympia Savyntsi1
Lisne2
Ahrotekh Tyshkivka2
Ch. Odesa1
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya1
Fenix Mariupol2
Metalist Kharkiv0
LNZ Cherkasy2
Rukh Lviv3
Polissya Zhytomyr0
Bukovyna1
Karpaty Lviv0
Nyva Ternopil3
SC Poltava0
Oleksandriya1
Dynamo Kyiv2
Polissya Stavky0
Shakhtar1
Livyi Bereg0
Victoria1
Inhulets4
FC Podillya Khmelnytskyi1
1/8-finals
Ahrobiznes Volochysk3
FC Kharkiv4
Lokomotyv Kyiv1
Nyva Vinnytsya0
FC Chernihiv2
Lisne1
Ahrotekh Tyshkivka1
Fenix Mariupol2
LNZ Cherkasy1
Rukh Lviv0
Bukovyna2
Nyva Ternopil1
Dynamo Kyiv2
Shakhtar1
Victoria0
Inhulets1
Quarter-finals
FC Kharkiv3
Lokomotyv Kyiv0
FC Chernihiv1
Fenix Mariupol0
LNZ Cherkasy0
Bukovyna1
Dynamo Kyiv2
Inhulets0
Semi-finals
FC Kharkiv0
FC Chernihiv1
Bukovyna0
Dynamo Kyiv3
Final
FC Chernihiv1
Dynamo Kyiv3