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FC Chernihiv vs Lokomotyv Kyiv - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ukraine Ukraine

Persha Liga Chernihiv Arena, Chernihiv
Mon, Nov 16, 2026
VS
10:30 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FC Chernihiv host Lokomotyv Kyiv in the Persha Liga. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: FC Chernihiv at 1.23 goals for, 1.58 against; Lokomotyv Kyiv at 1.55 for, 1.03 against. Past meetings favor FC Chernihiv slightly — 1-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 25, 2026, ending 1:1. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 1.81) point toward Lokomotyv Kyiv. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
FC Chernihiv
20%
Draws
46%
Lokomotyv Kyiv
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lokomotyv Kyiv

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lokomotyv Kyiv come out ahead of FC Chernihiv on wins alone.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Lokomotyv Kyiv taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
FC Chernihiv Clean Sheet 11%
Lokomotyv Kyiv Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Chernihiv Lokomotyv Kyiv
Matches Played 26 29
Wins 6 13
Draws 6 8
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1.23 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Persha Liga
Lokomotyv Kyiv vs FC Chernihiv
1:1
Apr 11, 2025 Druha Liga
Lokomotyv Kyiv vs FC Chernihiv
0:3
Aug 31, 2024 Druha Liga
FC Chernihiv vs Lokomotyv Kyiv
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Chernihiv 22 / 100
Lokomotyv Kyiv 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Chernihiv Lokomotyv Kyiv

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lokomotyv Kyiv Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Chernihiv's goal record stands at 85% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.33 goals per match.

Lokomotyv Kyiv let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

FC Chernihiv went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Chernihiv VS Lokomotyv Kyiv
1.38 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Chernihiv

(Home)
01 Nov
Fenix Mariupol
3 : 1
FC Chernihiv
29 Oct
FC Chernihiv
1 : 2
Epitsentr
17 Oct
Victoria
2 : 1
FC Chernihiv
11 Oct
Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998)
0 : 1
FC Chernihiv
06 Oct
Trostyanets
2 : 4
FC Chernihiv
Page 1 of 6

Lokomotyv Kyiv

(Away)
31 Oct
Lokomotyv Kyiv
2 : 1
Inhulets
25 Oct
UCSA
3 : 2
Lokomotyv Kyiv
18 Oct
Lokomotyv Kyiv
0 : 0
Nyva Ternopil
11 Oct
Oleksandriya
1 : 3
Lokomotyv Kyiv
03 Oct
Lokomotyv Kyiv
3 : 3
Zhytomyr 2
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Victoria 14 8 4 2 19:11 28
2 Fenix Mariupol 14 8 3 3 23:14 27
3 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 13 8 2 3 22:14 26
4 Kulikiv 14 7 3 4 28:17 24
5 Oleksandriya 14 6 6 2 19:11 24
6 SC Poltava 14 7 3 4 25:13 24
7 Lokomotyv Kyiv 14 5 5 4 19:17 20
8 Nyva Ternopil 14 4 7 3 17:13 19
9 Metalist Kharkiv 14 5 3 6 17:16 18
10 Inhulets 13 5 2 6 14:18 17
11 Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998) 14 4 4 6 13:18 16
12 UCSA 14 3 5 6 18:23 14
13 Kolos Kovalivka 2 14 4 1 9 12:26 13
14 FC Chernihiv 12 2 4 6 13:19 10
15 Probiy Horodenka 14 2 4 8 14:34 10
16 Zhytomyr 2 14 1 6 7 18:27 9
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Persha Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Persha Liga (Relegation Group)
Relegation - Druha Liga 2027/2028 (Main)