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FC Cincinnati vs Atlas - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

Leagues Cup TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Ramirez Leon B. J.
44' Event
Evander
Assist: Ramirez Leon B. J.
46'
Sub
Hernandez S. In: Esteves L.
Out: Hernandez S.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. The second leg ended 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
FC Cincinnati
35%
Draws
46%
Atlas
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Atlas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and FC Cincinnati come out ahead of Atlas on wins alone.
  • Model gives FC Cincinnati a 42% chance of winning this.
  • FC Cincinnati have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Atlas, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
FC Cincinnati Clean Sheet 10%
Atlas Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Cincinnati Atlas
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 10 9
Draws 9 7
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 2.3 1.07
Goals Conceded 2.41 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 12, 2026 Leagues Cup
FC Cincinnati vs Atlas
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Cincinnati Compare

Top Goalscorer Evander
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Atlas Compare

Top Goalscorer Monzon F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Serrato J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Cincinnati 40 / 100
Atlas 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Cincinnati Atlas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Cincinnati found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (27 games).

Atlas has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

FC Cincinnati went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Cincinnati VS Atlas
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Cincinnati

(Home)
26 Sept
CF Montreal
3 : 1
FC Cincinnati
20 Sept
Houston Dynamo
2 : 2
FC Cincinnati
12 Sept
FC Cincinnati
3 : 3
Charlotte FC
09 Sept
Philadelphia Union
5 : 0
FC Cincinnati
30 Aug
Nashville SC
4 : 0
FC Cincinnati
Page 1 of 6

Atlas

(Away)
26 Sept
Club Tijuana
2 : 3
Atlas
19 Sept
Atlas
1 : 1
UNAM Pumas
12 Sept
Toluca
5 : 2
Atlas
06 Sept
Atlas
1 : 1
Atlante
29 Aug
Atlas
1 : 3
Queretaro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club Leon 3 3 0 0 6:3 9
2 Club America 3 2 0 1 7:3 7
3 Toluca 3 2 0 1 6:2 6
4 Monterrey 3 2 0 1 5:4 6
5 Cruz Azul 3 2 0 1 4:3 6
6 Juarez 3 2 0 1 5:5 6
7 Tigres UANL 3 3 0 0 2:2 6
8 Guadalajara Chivas 3 1 0 2 3:3 4
9 Santos Laguna 3 1 0 2 3:5 3
10 Pachuca 3 1 0 2 3:5 3
11 Atlas 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
12 Necaxa 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
13 Atlante 3 1 0 2 2:7 3
14 Atletico San Luis 3 0 0 3 5:10 1
15 UNAM Pumas 3 0 0 3 1:6 1
16 Queretaro 3 0 0 3 1:6 1
17 Club Tijuana 3 0 0 3 1:6 0
18 Puebla 3 0 0 3 4:11 0
Promotion - Leagues Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chicago Fire 3 3 0 0 7:2 9
2 Austin FC 3 3 0 0 6:1 8
3 Columbus Crew 3 3 0 0 6:3 8
4 Real Salt Lake 3 2 0 1 8:1 7
5 Los Angeles FC 3 3 0 0 3:2 7
6 Charlotte FC 3 2 0 1 5:1 6
7 Portland Timbers 3 2 0 1 9:6 6
8 FC Cincinnati 3 2 0 1 6:3 6
9 FC Dallas 3 2 0 1 4:3 6
10 San Diego FC 3 2 0 1 5:5 6
11 Orlando City 3 2 0 1 5:5 5
12 Minnesota United 3 1 0 2 4:3 4
13 Nashville SC 3 1 0 2 5:4 3
14 Inter Miami 3 1 0 2 7:7 3
15 New York City 3 1 0 2 4:4 3
16 Seattle Sounders 3 1 0 2 4:5 3
17 Philadelphia Union 3 1 0 2 3:4 3
18 Vancouver Whitecaps 3 0 0 3 2:5 1
Promotion - Leagues Cup (Play Offs)