Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FC Emmen vs De Graafschap

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen
Fri, Sep 11, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FC Emmen host De Graafschap in the Eerste Divisie. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. De Graafschap have shipped 2.23 goals a game lately, while FC Emmen have conceded 2.03 and scored 1.59. Past meetings favor FC Emmen slightly — 4-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 24, 2026, ending 1:0. The numbers (2.75 xG vs 1.94) point toward FC Emmen. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

78%
FC Emmen
15%
Draws
7%
De Graafschap
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Emmen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to De Graafschap lately — more wins on the board than FC Emmen.
  • FC Emmen are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and FC Emmen have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
FC Emmen Clean Sheet 10%
De Graafschap Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Emmen De Graafschap
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 11
Draws 5 7
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.59 1.97
Goals Conceded 2.03 2.23
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 24, 2026 Eerste Divisie
FC Emmen vs De Graafschap
1:0
Sep 5, 2025 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs FC Emmen
2:3
Jan 24, 2025 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs FC Emmen
4:0
Nov 25, 2024 Eerste Divisie
FC Emmen vs De Graafschap
3:0
May 10, 2024 Eerste Divisie
FC Emmen vs De Graafschap
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Emmen 83 / 100
De Graafschap 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Emmen De Graafschap

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EMMF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

De Graafschap has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Attacking prowess: FC Emmen scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: FC Emmen remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

FC Emmen VS De Graafschap
2 Goals Scored 1.75
2.13 Goals Conceded 3.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Emmen

(Home)
30 Aug
Venlo
4 : 0
FC Emmen
21 Aug
FC Emmen
3 : 1
Jong AZ Alkmaar
17 Aug
Jong Ajax
4 : 6
FC Emmen
07 Aug
FC Emmen
1 : 0
Roda
01 Aug
FC Emmen
4 : 0
Almere City
Page 1 of 6

De Graafschap

(Away)
29 Aug
De Graafschap
1 : 4
Almere City
23 Aug
Venlo
2 : 1
De Graafschap
17 Aug
De Graafschap
2 : 5
Jong AZ Alkmaar
09 Aug
Helmond Sport
1 : 1
De Graafschap
01 Aug
De Graafschap
1 : 5
Excelsior
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Heracles 4 4 0 0 16:7 12
2 Maastricht 4 4 0 0 8:4 12
3 Almere City 4 3 1 0 11:3 10
4 Venlo 4 3 0 1 11:5 9
5 FC Emmen 4 3 0 1 10:9 9
6 Jong PSV 5 2 2 1 8:8 8
7 Vitesse 4 2 1 1 8:6 7
8 Roda 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
9 NAC Breda 4 2 1 1 7:7 7
10 FC Volendam 4 2 0 2 11:5 6
11 Jong AZ Alkmaar 5 2 0 3 9:9 6
12 Waalwijk 4 0 4 0 6:6 4
13 Den Bosch 4 1 1 2 9:10 4
14 Dordrecht 4 1 1 2 5:10 4
15 Jong Ajax 5 1 1 3 11:14 4
16 TOP Oss 4 1 0 3 3:7 3
17 Eindhoven FC 4 1 0 3 6:11 3
18 Helmond Sport 4 0 2 2 5:7 2
19 De Graafschap 4 0 1 3 5:12 1
20 Jong Utrecht 5 0 0 5 5:15 0
Promotion - Eredivisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)