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FC Gera 03 vs Lokomotive Leipzig

Germany Germany

Oberliga NOFV- Süd 2011/2012 Stadion der Freundschaft, Gera
Sun, Apr 29, 2012
VS
11:30 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FC Gera 03 host Lokomotive Leipzig in the Oberliga NOFV- Süd 2011/2012. Lokomotive Leipzig go into this one as the clear favorite. FC Gera 03 have averaged 0.81 scored and 2.88 conceded recently, against Lokomotive Leipzig's 1.9 scored and 1.5 conceded. Head-to-head, FC Gera 03 have won 2 to Lokomotive Leipzig's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 29, 2012, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.54 vs 1.30, favoring Lokomotive Leipzig. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
FC Gera 03
30%
Draws
39%
Lokomotive Leipzig
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lokomotive Leipzig

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Lokomotive Leipzig have won more games recently than FC Gera 03.
  • Model gives FC Gera 03 a 31% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Oberliga NOFV- Süd 2011/2012 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
FC Gera 03 Clean Sheet 19%
Lokomotive Leipzig Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Gera 03 Lokomotive Leipzig
Matches Played 16 30
Wins 2 13
Draws 2 6
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 0.81 1.9
Goals Conceded 2.88 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2012 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
FC Gera 03 vs Lokomotive Leipzig
0:0
Nov 4, 2011 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
Lokomotive Leipzig vs FC Gera 03
6:0
May 9, 2010 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
Lokomotive Leipzig vs FC Gera 03
1:2
Nov 8, 2009 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
FC Gera 03 vs Lokomotive Leipzig
0:1
May 31, 2009 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
FC Gera 03 vs Lokomotive Leipzig
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Gera 03 49 / 100
Lokomotive Leipzig 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Gera 03 Lokomotive Leipzig

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Gera 03 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Lokomotive Leipzig conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: FC Gera 03 scored in 56% of their last 16 outings.

Solid form: FC Gera 03 remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Lokomotive Leipzig
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 1.88
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Gera 03

(Home)
10 Dec
Dresden II
3 : 0
FC Gera 03
03 Dec
Piesteritz
1 : 2
FC Gera 03
27 Nov
FC Gera 03
2 : 2
Jena II
19 Nov
FC Gera 03
1 : 2
Erfurt II
04 Nov
Lokomotive Leipzig
6 : 0
FC Gera 03
Page 1 of 4

Lokomotive Leipzig

(Away)
26 Sept
Lokomotive Leipzig
3 : 4
Erfurt
20 Sept
Jena
1 : 2
Lokomotive Leipzig
16 Sept
Lokomotive Leipzig
2 : 2
BFC Dynamo
13 Sept
Greifswalder FC
3 : 3
Lokomotive Leipzig
30 Aug
Lokomotive Leipzig
1 : 2
Aue
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zwickau 26 18 6 2 71:20 60
2 Auerbach 26 15 7 4 47:30 52
3 Erfurt II 26 14 4 8 40:35 46
4 Dresden II 26 12 8 6 51:36 44
5 Jena II 26 12 8 6 39:32 44
6 Lokomotive Leipzig 26 13 3 10 40:27 42
7 Chemnitzer II 26 11 6 9 39:28 39
8 Fortuna Chemnitz 26 9 10 7 47:48 37
9 Bautzen 26 9 9 8 34:30 36
10 Aue II 26 9 4 13 43:42 31
11 Luckenwalde 26 7 3 16 38:55 24
12 Gotha 26 3 9 14 26:65 18
13 Piesteritz 26 4 4 18 27:63 16
14 Halle 26 4 3 19 22:53 15
15 FC Gera 03 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Borea Dresden 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Regionalliga North 2012/2013 (Main)
Promotion - Regionalliga North 2012/2013 (Main)