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FC Jarfalla vs Karlbergs

Sweden Sweden

Division 1 - Norra Jarfallavallen, Jarfalla
Thu, Sep 17, 2026
VS
05:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FC Jarfalla host Karlbergs in the Division 1 - Norra. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. FC Jarfalla have averaged 1.39 scored and 2.14 conceded recently, against Karlbergs's 1.44 scored and 1.26 conceded. Head-to-head, FC Jarfalla have won 2 to Karlbergs's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on May 16, 2026, ending 1:3. The numbers (0.63 xG vs 1.94) point toward Karlbergs. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
FC Jarfalla
15%
Draws
85%
Karlbergs
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Karlbergs

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Karlbergs lately — more wins on the board than FC Jarfalla.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Division 1 - Norra form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
FC Jarfalla Clean Sheet 10%
Karlbergs Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Jarfalla Karlbergs
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 7 13
Draws 4 4
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 1.39 1.44
Goals Conceded 2.14 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Division 1 - Norra
Karlbergs vs FC Jarfalla
1:3
Sep 17, 2023 Division 2 - Norra Svealand
FC Jarfalla vs Karlbergs
1:1
May 18, 2023 Division 2 - Norra Svealand
Karlbergs vs FC Jarfalla
0:1
Oct 17, 2021 Division 2 - Norra Svealand
FC Jarfalla vs Karlbergs
1:3
Aug 14, 2021 Division 2 - Norra Svealand
Karlbergs vs FC Jarfalla
6:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Jarfalla 30 / 100
Karlbergs 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Jarfalla Karlbergs

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Karlbergs Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

FC Jarfalla's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Karlbergs has conceded goals in 63% of their last 27 outings.

Difficult form: Karlbergs registered 2 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Jarfalla VS Karlbergs
0.38 Goals Scored 1.38
2.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Jarfalla

(Home)
12 Sept
Gefle
3 : 1
FC Jarfalla
05 Sept
FC Jarfalla
0 : 3
FBK Karlstad
29 Aug
FC Jarfalla
0 : 2
Assyriska FF
21 Aug
FC Stockholm Internazionale
2 : 0
FC Jarfalla
15 Aug
Sollentuna
2 : 1
FC Jarfalla
Page 1 of 6

Karlbergs

(Away)
12 Sept
Karlbergs
1 : 0
FC Arlanda
06 Sept
Pitea
3 : 0
Karlbergs
31 Aug
Hammarby TFF
0 : 0
Karlbergs
23 Aug
Karlbergs
0 : 3
AFC Eskilstuna
18 Aug
Karlbergs
2 : 0
Brage
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Stockholm Internazionale 20 13 3 4 44:17 42
2 Hammarby TFF 21 12 5 4 46:18 41
3 Karlstad 21 11 4 6 33:21 37
4 AFC Eskilstuna 20 11 4 5 35:27 37
5 FBK Karlstad 21 11 4 6 36:32 37
6 FC Arlanda 21 10 6 5 34:25 36
7 Enkopings SK 21 11 2 8 32:34 35
8 Assyriska FF 21 8 5 8 35:34 29
9 Karlbergs 21 8 4 9 29:31 28
10 Gefle 21 8 3 10 28:39 27
11 Umea FC 20 6 5 9 26:33 23
12 Sollentuna 21 5 8 8 19:28 23
13 Vasalund 21 6 5 10 33:43 23
14 Pitea 20 3 6 11 24:40 15
15 FC Jarfalla 21 4 3 14 24:47 15
16 IFK Stocksund 21 3 5 13 41:50 14
Promotion - Superettan 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 - Norra (Promotion)
Relegation - Division 1 - Norra (Relegation - Play Offs)