Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FC Kharkiv vs FC Chernihiv

Ukraine Ukraine

Ukrainian Cup Kolos Stadium
Wed, Apr 22, 2026
0 - 1
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FC Kharkiv play FC Chernihiv in the Ukrainian Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, FC Kharkiv averaged 1.46 goals scored and 0.79 conceded. FC Chernihiv averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, FC Kharkiv won 0, FC Chernihiv won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 22, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for FC Kharkiv and 1.13 for FC Chernihiv. This points to a FC Kharkiv double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
FC Kharkiv
27%
Draws
34%
FC Chernihiv
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: FC Kharkiv

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • FC Kharkiv picked up more points recently compared to FC Chernihiv.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 58%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%
FC Kharkiv Clean Sheet 21%
FC Chernihiv Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 52%
Second Half Goal 55%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Kharkiv FC Chernihiv
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 13 10
Draws 8 7
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.46 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 22, 2026 Ukrainian Cup
FC Kharkiv vs FC Chernihiv
0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Kharkiv 39 / 100
FC Chernihiv 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Kharkiv FC Chernihiv

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: FC Kharkiv or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +20.8%
3.45
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

FC Kharkiv attacking → ← attacking FC Chernihiv

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Kharkiv scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

FC Chernihiv let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

FC Kharkiv went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

FC Chernihiv lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 37
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38