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FC Kharkiv vs SC Poltava

Ukraine Ukraine

Premier League 2025/2026 Tsentralnyi Stadion
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AI Match Summary

FC Kharkiv play SC Poltava in the Premier League 2025/2026. FC Kharkiv are favorites here. Recently, FC Kharkiv averaged 1.48 goals scored and 0.76 conceded. SC Poltava averaged 0.83 goals scored and 2.55 conceded. In past meetings, FC Kharkiv won 4, SC Poltava won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 19, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for FC Kharkiv and 0.81 for SC Poltava. This points to a FC Kharkiv double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

71%
FC Kharkiv
17%
Draws
12%
SC Poltava
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: FC Kharkiv

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • FC Kharkiv picked up more points recently compared to SC Poltava.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 0.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35%
FC Kharkiv Clean Sheet 26%
SC Poltava Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Kharkiv SC Poltava
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 2
Draws 8 6
Losses 7 21
Goals Scored 1.48 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.76 2.55
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 Premier League
FC Kharkiv vs SC Poltava
2:0
Sep 21, 2025 Premier League
SC Poltava vs FC Kharkiv
0:2
Nov 25, 2024 Persha Liga
SC Poltava vs FC Kharkiv
0:1
Sep 27, 2024 Persha Liga
FC Kharkiv vs SC Poltava
0:1
Aug 12, 2024 Ukrainian Cup
FC Kharkiv vs SC Poltava
5:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Kharkiv Compare

Top Goalscorer Itodo P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cauan Baptistella
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

SC Poltava Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Kharkiv 69 / 100
SC Poltava 13 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Kharkiv SC Poltava

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Kharkiv Win (1)
Secondary Pick FC Kharkiv & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +12.9%
1.59
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

FC Kharkiv attacking → ← attacking SC Poltava

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Kharkiv scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

SC Poltava let in goals in 97% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

FC Kharkiv went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

SC Poltava lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

50 Points in last 5 12
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Shakhtar30226271:2172
2LNZ Cherkasy30186639:1760
3Polissya Zhytomyr30185751:2159
4Dynamo Kyiv30176766:3657
5FC Kharkiv301312536:1951
6Kolos Kovalivka301310730:2549
7Kryvbas30139853:4648
8Zorya301210842:3646
9Karpaty Lviv301011940:3141
10Epitsentr30881436:4532
11Veres Rivne307101326:4031
12Obolon307101328:4931
13Kudrivka30771632:4828
14Rukh Lviv30632120:5121
15Oleksandriya30381924:5817
16SC Poltava30272123:7413