Sport Picks

Portugal

Taça de Portugal 2025/2026 Estádio do Dragão, Porto

FC Porto

1 - 0

Benfica

Our Tip

Match Events

15'

Bednarek J.

Assist: Veiga G.

40'

Rios R.

44'

Sub

Rios R. In: Sudakov G.

Out: Rios R.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

FC Porto in this Taça de Portugal 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%

FC Porto

15%

Draws

39%

Benfica

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Porto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence

Attack-wise there's a gap: Benfica at 2.54 per game, FC Porto at 1.54.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
Historical meetings favor Benfica, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%

FC Porto Clean Sheet 10%

Benfica Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	FC Porto	Benfica
Matches Played	28	28
Wins	18	18
Draws	5	6
Losses	5	4
Goals Scored	1.54	2.54
Goals Conceded	0.71	1.04
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Liga Portugal

Benfica vs FC Porto

2:2

Jan 14, 2026 Taça de Portugal

FC Porto vs Benfica

1:0

Oct 5, 2025 Liga Portugal

FC Porto vs Benfica

0:0

Apr 6, 2025 Liga Portugal

FC Porto vs Benfica

1:4

Nov 10, 2024 Liga Portugal

Benfica vs FC Porto

4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Porto Compare

Top Goalscorer Bednarek J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Benfica Compare

Avg xG / game 1.76

Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Porto 34 / 100

Benfica 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

FC Porto Benfica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Benfica Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Porto found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

FC Porto has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Benfica has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

FC Porto VS Benfica

1.5 Goals Scored 3.75

0.13 Goals Conceded 1

63% Over 1.5 100%

25% Over 2.5 88%

0% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Porto

(Home)

29 Aug

Academico Viseu

0 : 3

FC Porto

23 Aug

FC Porto

2 : 0

Arouca

15 Aug

Rio Ave

0 : 2

FC Porto

09 Aug

FC Porto

2 : 0

Alverca

01 Aug

FC Porto

1 : 0

Torreense

Page 1 of 6

Benfica

(Away)

31 Aug

Benfica

2 : 1

Estoril

27 Aug

Aarhus

1 : 3

Benfica

20 Aug

Benfica

3 : 1

Aarhus

17 Aug

Casa Pia

0 : 7

Benfica

13 Aug

Hearts

1 : 1

Benfica

Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/128-finals

Florgrade 0

SC Espinho 1

TBD -

Almodovar -

TBD -

Santa Clara -

Industria 1

Juv. Evora 0

SC Salgueiros 4

AD Pontassolense 2

Trofense 5

Varzim 1

Valenciano 1

SC Vianense 4

GD Os Nazarenos 1

GD Sourense 0

TBD -

Pacos Ferreira -

TBD -

Sporting CP -

Moncarapachense 3

Viana Alentejo 0

Castro Daire 1

Anadia 2

Marinhense 2

Samora Correia 1

TBD -

Mosteirense -

Uniao Lamas -

TBD -

Urzelinense 0

Malveira 6

TBD -

Vitoria Guimaraes -

Carregal do Sal 1

Mortagua FC 2

Academica 0

Os Marialvas 1

Portimonense B -

TBD -

Penafiel -

Fornos de Algodres -

TBD -

Charneca Caparica 1

Montijo 0

TBD -

AFS -

Portalegrense -

TBD -

Academico Viseu -

TBD -

Gil Vicente -

Celoricense 1

CD Celeiros 0

TBD -

Mafra -

TBD -

FC Porto -

Sintrense -

TBD -

Vizela -

TBD -

Rio Ave -

CF Os Belenenses 1

Amora 0

TBD -

Maritimo -

TBD -

Estoril -

Sao Joao de Ver -

TBD -

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 2

Lagoa 1

TBD -

Famalicao -

Cinfaes 0

AD Marco 09 1

SC Lusitania 0

O Elvas CAD 3

Vidago -

TBD -

SC Farense -

Silves FC -

TBD -

Oliveira Hospital -

Louletano -

TBD -

Operario -

Atletico CP -

TBD -

Rebordosa 2

Leca 0

Sanjoanense -

TBD -

FC Felgueiras -

Paredes -

TBD -

Chaves -

TBD -

Benfica -

UD Ovarense 7

SC Celoricense 1

TBD -

Covilha -

Uniao Nogueirense -

TBD -

Aguias do Moradal -

CD Lajense 1

Lusitano GC 7

Serpa 3

Portel 0

Fayal 0

Olivais e Moscavide 5

TBD -

Uniao Da Serra -

Oriental 2

GD Alcochetense 1

TBD -

AD Fafe -

TBD -

Moreirense -

Vitoria Sernache -

TBD -

Portimonense -

TBD -

Arouca -

Sao Martinho 1

Machico 2

SC Vila Real 3

Camacha 2

TBD -

Tondela -

Caldas SC 4

AD Portomosense 0

TBD -

Fatima -

Fazendense -

TBD -

SC Mirandela -

GD Braganca -

TBD -

Maria de Fonte 1

Brito 2

TBD -

Braga -

Rebordelo -

TBD -

CD Gouveia 4

Beira Mar 2

TBD -

Nacional -

FC Alpendorada -

TBD -

Estrela Calheta -

TBD -

Estrela da Amadora -

Anca -

TBD -

Vinhais -

TBD -

Casa Pia -

Castrense 1

CDR Quarteirense 0

TBD -

Lusitania FC -

GD Resende -

TBD -

Feirense -

Correlha 2

Valpacos 0

TBD -

Torreense -

Vilaverdense FC 0

Desportivo Moncao 1

TBD -

Oliveirense -

AD Limianos -

TBD -

Aparecida 1

Vila Mea 3

Vila Caiz 1

CD Ribeira Brava 0

TBD -

Electrico FC -

Tirsense 1

Amarante FC 2

TBD -

Santarem -

Naval 1893 3

Ac. Fundao 0

TBD -

Leixoes -

GD Peniche 8

Ferreira do Zezere 0

Lajense 0

1º Dezembro 1

SB Castelo Branco -

TBD -

SC Angrense -

Sacavenense 7

CD Rabo Peixe 0

TBD -

Leiria -

TBD -

Alverca -

1/64-finals

SC Espinho 5

Almodovar 1

TBD -

Santa Clara -

Industria 4

SC Salgueiros 2

Trofense 2

SC Vianense 3

GD Os Nazarenos 0

Pacos Ferreira 1

TBD -

Sporting CP -

Moncarapachense 1

Anadia 2

Marinhense 6

Mosteirense 0

Uniao Lamas 2

Malveira 1

TBD -

Vitoria Guimaraes -

Mortagua FC 1

Os Marialvas 0

Portimonense B 2

Penafiel 1

Fornos de Algodres 3

Charneca Caparica 1

TBD -

AFS -

Portalegrense 0

Academico Viseu 3

TBD -

Gil Vicente -

Celoricense 1

Mafra 0

TBD -

FC Porto -

Sintrense 2

Vizela 1

TBD -

Rio Ave -

CF Os Belenenses 2

Maritimo 0

TBD -

Estoril -

Sao Joao de Ver 6

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 2

TBD -

Famalicao -

AD Marco 09 1

O Elvas CAD 0

Vidago 0

SC Farense 2

Silves FC 3

Oliveira Hospital 2

Louletano 5

Operario 0

Atletico CP 1

Rebordosa 0

Sanjoanense 0

FC Felgueiras 4

Paredes 0

Chaves 2

TBD -

Benfica -

UD Ovarense 2

Covilha 3

Uniao Nogueirense 1

Aguias do Moradal 0

Lusitano GC 1

Serpa 0

Olivais e Moscavide 2

Uniao Da Serra 0

Oriental 0

AD Fafe 1

TBD -

Moreirense -

Vitoria Sernache 1

Portimonense 2

TBD -

Arouca -

Machico 0

SC Vila Real 2

TBD -

Tondela -

Caldas SC 3

Fatima 0

Fazendense 1

SC Mirandela 2

GD Braganca 5

Brito 0

TBD -

Braga -

Rebordelo 3

CD Gouveia 2

TBD -

Nacional -

FC Alpendorada 7

Estrela Calheta 1

TBD -

Estrela da Amadora -

Anca 3

Vinhais 1

TBD -

Casa Pia -

Castrense 0

Lusitania FC 5

GD Resende 1

Feirense 0

Correlha 1

Torreense 3

Desportivo Moncao 1

Oliveirense 3

AD Limianos 0

Vila Mea 4

Vila Caiz 3

Electrico FC 2

Amarante FC 2

Santarem 0

Naval 1893 0

Leixoes 1

GD Peniche 4

1º Dezembro 5

SB Castelo Branco 7

SC Angrense 1

Sacavenense 2

Leiria 4

TBD -

Alverca -

1/32-finals

SC Espinho 0

Santa Clara 1

Industria 3

SC Vianense 0

Pacos Ferreira 2

Sporting CP 3

Anadia 0

Marinhense 1

Uniao Lamas 0

Vitoria Guimaraes 1

Mortagua FC 2

Portimonense B 0

Fornos de Algodres 0

AFS 7

Academico Viseu 2

Gil Vicente 1

Celoricense 0

FC Porto 4

Sintrense 3

Rio Ave 2

CF Os Belenenses 1

Estoril 2

Sao Joao de Ver 0

Famalicao 3

AD Marco 09 0

SC Farense 3

Silves FC 2

Louletano 1

Atletico CP 2

FC Felgueiras 0

Chaves 0

Benfica 2

Covilha 1

Uniao Nogueirense 0

Lusitano GC 4

Olivais e Moscavide 1

AD Fafe 1

Moreirense 0

Portimonense 1

Arouca 2

SC Vila Real 1

Tondela 5

Caldas SC 1

SC Mirandela 0

GD Braganca 0

Braga 1

Rebordelo 1

Nacional 3

FC Alpendorada 3

Estrela da Amadora 1

Anca 0

Casa Pia 3

Lusitania FC 2

GD Resende 0

Torreense 2

Oliveirense 1

Vila Mea 1

Vila Caiz 0

Amarante FC 1

Leixoes 2

1º Dezembro 2

SB Castelo Branco 1

Leiria 3

Alverca 2

1/16-finals

Santa Clara 3

Industria 0

Sporting CP 3

Marinhense 0

Vitoria Guimaraes 4

Mortagua FC 0

AFS 1

Academico Viseu 0

FC Porto 3

Sintrense 0

Estoril 1

Famalicao 2

SC Farense 5

Silves FC 1

Atletico CP 0

Benfica 2

Covilha 0

Lusitano GC 2

AD Fafe 2

Arouca 1

Tondela 0

Caldas SC 1

Braga 4

Nacional 2

FC Alpendorada 0

Casa Pia 3

Lusitania FC 0

Torreense 1

Vila Mea 2

Leixoes 1

1º Dezembro 1

Leiria 3

1/8-finals

Santa Clara 2

Sporting CP 3

Vitoria Guimaraes 0

AFS 1

FC Porto 4

Famalicao 1

SC Farense 0

Benfica 2

Lusitano GC 0

AD Fafe 1

Caldas SC 0

Braga 3

Casa Pia 1

Torreense 2

Vila Mea 0

Leiria 1

Quarter-finals

Sporting CP 3

AFS 2

FC Porto 1

Benfica 0

AD Fafe 2

Braga 1

Torreense 3

Leiria 1

Semi-finals

Sporting CP 1

FC Porto 0

AD Fafe 1

Torreense 3

Final

Sporting CP 1

Torreense 2

FC Porto vs Benfica

Portugal

FC Porto

Benfica

Match Events

AI Match Summary

Win Probability Meter

Model Confidence

Goal Probability Engine

Recent Team Form Analysis

H2H

Key Player Impact Analysis

FC Porto Compare

Benfica Compare

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Scoring Trends

Recent Form & Match History

FC Porto

Benfica

Tournament Bracket & Draw

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