Sport Picks

Brazil

Paulista A4 2011

Independente SP

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

FC Primeira Camisa play Independente SP in the Paulista A4 2011. It looks like a close match. Recently, FC Primeira Camisa averaged 1.47 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Independente SP averaged 2.25 goals scored and 1.09 conceded. In past meetings, FC Primeira Camisa won 1, Independente SP won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Oct 23, 2011 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.17 for FC Primeira Camisa and 1.18 for Independente SP. This points to a Independente SP double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

FC Primeira Camisa

34%

Draws

35%

Independente SP

Draw rate projection: 34% Favored: Independente SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

FC Primeira Camisa picked up more points recently compared to Independente SP.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.17 vs 1.18 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 76%

Over 2.5 Goals 48%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

FC Primeira Camisa Clean Sheet 20%

Independente SP Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	FC Primeira Camisa	Independente SP
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	11	17
Draws	12	5
Losses	7	10
Goals Scored	1.47	2.25
Goals Conceded	1.03	1.09

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 23, 2011 Paulista A4

Independente SP vs FC Primeira Camisa

Possession: 54% - 40% Cards: 4 - 1

4:0

Oct 2, 2011 Paulista A4

FC Primeira Camisa vs Independente SP

Possession: 51% - 46% Cards: 3 - 0

2:0

Aug 24, 2011 Paulista A4

FC Primeira Camisa vs Independente SP

Possession: 54% - 42% Cards: 2 - 3

2:2

Aug 9, 2011 Paulista A4

Independente SP vs FC Primeira Camisa

Possession: 53% - 47% Cards: 3 - 2

0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Primeira Camisa 32 / 100

Independente SP 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

FC Primeira Camisa Independente SP

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Independente SP or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +34.8%

4.35

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.38

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

FC Primeira Camisa attacking → ← attacking Independente SP

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Primeira Camisa scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Independente SP let in goals in 69% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

FC Primeira Camisa went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Independente SP lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 56

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Capivariano	6	5	1	0	13:4	16
2	Guacuano	6	3	1	2	11:6	10
3	Bandeirante	6	2	0	4	6:12	6
4	Guariba	6	1	0	5	7:15	3

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Barretos EC	6	4	2	8:3	12
2	ECUS SP	6	4	2	7:5	12
3	Palmeirinha SP	6	2	4	5:6	6
4	Cotia	6	2	4	7:13	6

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independente SP	6	2	4	0	11:5	10
2	FC Primeira Camisa	6	2	3	1	9:7	9
3	Guaruja	6	2	1	3	9:14	7
4	Sumare	6	0	4	2	6:9	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Desportivo	6	3	1	2	9:6	10
2	Jacarei (Inactive)	6	3	1	2	14:11	10
3	EC Sao Bernardo	6	2	1	3	7:11	7
4	Tupa	6	2	1	3	8:10	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Fernandopolis	6	4	2	0	11:1	14
2	Olimpia FC	6	2	3	1	6:6	9
3	Sao Vicente	6	1	3	2	7:8	6
4	Guarulhos	6	0	2	4	4:13	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portuguesa Santista	6	3	2	1	9:7	11
2	Votuporanguense	6	3	1	2	11:6	10
3	Brasilis	6	2	2	2	8:8	8
4	Ole Brasil	6	1	1	4	5:12	4