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FC Rio de Janeiro vs Santa Cruz RJ - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Max
23' Event
Henrique P.
33' Event
Felipinho

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B2 game between FC Rio de Janeiro and Santa Cruz RJ finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Santa Cruz RJ.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
FC Rio de Janeiro
15%
Draws
51%
Santa Cruz RJ
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Santa Cruz RJ

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Santa Cruz RJ carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Santa Cruz RJ are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Carioca B2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
FC Rio de Janeiro Clean Sheet 20%
Santa Cruz RJ Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Rio de Janeiro Santa Cruz RJ
Matches Played 26 29
Wins 6 18
Draws 3 3
Losses 17 8
Goals Scored 1.15 2.07
Goals Conceded 2.12 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 21, 2026 Carioca B2
FC Rio de Janeiro vs Santa Cruz RJ
1:3
Sep 28, 2025 Carioca B2
FC Rio de Janeiro vs Santa Cruz RJ
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Rio de Janeiro Compare

Top Goalscorer Max
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Santa Cruz RJ Compare

Top Goalscorer Henrique P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Felipinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Rio de Janeiro 20 / 100
Santa Cruz RJ 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Rio de Janeiro Santa Cruz RJ

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santa Cruz RJ Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Santa Cruz RJ's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

FC Rio de Janeiro's goal record stands at 54% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Recent resilience: FC Rio de Janeiro stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Rio de Janeiro VS Santa Cruz RJ
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Rio de Janeiro

(Home)
05 Oct
Paraty
0 : 4
FC Rio de Janeiro
01 Oct
FC Rio de Janeiro
2 : 0
Barra Mansa
27 Sept
Serra Macaense
2 : 1
FC Rio de Janeiro
21 Sept
FC Rio de Janeiro
1 : 3
Santa Cruz RJ
13 Sept
Cardoso Moreira
1 : 0
FC Rio de Janeiro
Page 1 of 6

Santa Cruz RJ

(Away)
05 Oct
Serra Macaense
3 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
01 Oct
Belford Roxo
3 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
27 Sept
Santa Cruz RJ
1 : 0
Cardoso Moreira
21 Sept
FC Rio de Janeiro
1 : 3
Santa Cruz RJ
13 Sept
Santa Cruz RJ
3 : 0
Buzios
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Friburguense 7 5 2 0 12:4 17
2 Serra Macaense 7 4 1 2 14:8 13
3 Cardoso Moreira 7 4 1 2 9:5 13
4 Belford Roxo 7 3 3 1 14:6 12
5 Santa Cruz RJ 7 4 0 3 9:8 12
6 Paduano EC 7 3 2 2 9:6 11
7 FC Rio de Janeiro 7 3 1 3 11:7 10
8 7 de Abril 7 3 1 3 10:10 10
9 Campos AA 7 2 3 2 11:11 9
10 Barra Mansa 7 1 4 2 6:10 7
11 Buzios 7 1 0 6 5:18 3
12 Paraty 7 0 0 7 4:21 0
Promotion - Carioca B2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C 2027 (Main)