Sport Picks

Japan

J1 League 2026 Ajinomoto Stadium

FC Tokyo

0 - 3

Chiba

Our Tip

Match Events

de Souza Junior C. A.

Assist: Issaka Z.

18'

Omori R.

40'

Inamura H.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The J1 League 2026 game between FC Tokyo and Chiba finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chiba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%

FC Tokyo

28%

Draws

22%

Chiba

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: FC Tokyo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

FC Tokyo carry the better recent record into this one.
50% — that's where the model lands on FC Tokyo taking it.
Regular J1 League 2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%

FC Tokyo Clean Sheet 20%

Chiba Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	FC Tokyo	Chiba
Matches Played	28	30
Wins	16	9
Draws	5	3
Losses	7	18
Goals Scored	2	1
Goals Conceded	1.13	2
Expected Goals (xG)	2.00	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2026 J1 League

FC Tokyo vs Chiba

Possession: 52% - 47% Cards: 3 - 3

0:3

Mar 18, 2026 J1 League

Chiba vs FC Tokyo

Possession: 50% - 53% Cards: 2 - 1

1:2

Jul 10, 2024 Emperors Cup

FC Tokyo vs Chiba

Possession: 60% - 42% Cards: 1 - 1

1:2

Oct 13, 2013 Emperors Cup

Chiba vs FC Tokyo

Possession: 59% - 45% Cards: 3 - 3

1:2

Nov 26, 2011 J2 League

FC Tokyo vs Chiba

Possession: 42% - 45% Cards: 4 - 3

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Tokyo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54

Avg xA / game 1

Chiba Compare

Top Goalscorer de Souza Junior C. A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Himeno M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Tokyo 49 / 100

Chiba 22 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

FC Tokyo Chiba

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOK Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chiba's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

FC Tokyo scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

FC Tokyo went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Tokyo VS Chiba

2 Goals Scored 1

1.13 Goals Conceded 2

75% Over 1.5 88%

63% Over 2.5 50%

38% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	18	15	3	31:11	45
2	FC Tokyo	18	13	5	32:18	37
3	Machida Zelvia	18	13	5	28:22	37
4	Kawasaki Frontale	18	10	8	26:28	28
5	Verdy	18	10	8	22:26	28
6	Urawa Reds	18	7	11	25:22	25
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	18	6	12	28:31	20
8	Kashiwa Reysol	18	7	11	22:24	20
9	Mito	18	6	12	23:39	18
10	Chiba	18	3	15	18:34	12

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	11	7	29:25	35
2	Cerezo Osaka	18	11	7	30:21	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	10	8	33:31	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	10	8	31:23	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	10	8	31:25	28
6	Okayama	18	8	10	26:29	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	8	10	23:25	24
8	Kyoto	18	8	10	22:28	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	7	11	21:29	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	7	11	21:31	21