Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J1 League Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo
Wed, Oct 21, 2026
VS
10:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FC Tokyo host Kashiwa Reysol in the J1 League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. FC Tokyo have averaged 1.97 scored and 0.97 conceded recently, against Kashiwa Reysol's 1.96 scored and 1.29 conceded. Past meetings favor Kashiwa Reysol slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 29, 2026, ending 1:3. xG projections (1.81 - 1.19) back FC Tokyo to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
FC Tokyo
15%
Draws
38%
Kashiwa Reysol
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Tokyo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and FC Tokyo come out ahead of Kashiwa Reysol on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
FC Tokyo Clean Sheet 20%
Kashiwa Reysol Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Tokyo Kashiwa Reysol
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 19 18
Draws 3 0
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.97 1.96
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2026 J1 League
Kashiwa Reysol vs FC Tokyo
1:3
Feb 28, 2026 J1 League
FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol
0:2
Jul 5, 2025 J1 League
Kashiwa Reysol vs FC Tokyo
1:0
Apr 11, 2025 J1 League
FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol
1:1
Jul 6, 2024 J1 League
Kashiwa Reysol vs FC Tokyo
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Tokyo 31 / 100
Kashiwa Reysol 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Tokyo Kashiwa Reysol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Tokyo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: FC Tokyo scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

FC Tokyo has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Kashiwa Reysol conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

FC Tokyo VS Kashiwa Reysol
1.88 Goals Scored 2.25
0.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Tokyo

(Home)
10 Oct
FC Tokyo
3 : 0
Urawa Reds
07 Oct
FC Tokyo
4 : 0
Shonan Bellmare
29 Sept
Ehime
0 : 2
FC Tokyo
19 Sept
FC Tokyo
1 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
12 Sept
Gamba Osaka
0 : 2
FC Tokyo
Page 1 of 6

Kashiwa Reysol

(Away)
09 Oct
Kashiwa Reysol
4 : 2
Vissel Kobe
03 Oct
Kashiwa Reysol
5 : 4
Gamba Osaka
23 Sept
Kashiwa Reysol
4 : 0
Imabari
20 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 4
Kashiwa Reysol
16 Sept
Jeonbuk
2 : 1
Kashiwa Reysol
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kashiwa Reysol 9 7 0 2 21:14 21
2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 9 6 2 1 22:6 20
3 Machida Zelvia 9 6 2 1 22:10 20
4 FC Tokyo 9 6 2 1 17:8 20
5 Vissel Kobe 9 6 1 2 14:9 19
6 Kashima Antlers 9 5 1 3 19:16 16
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 9 4 3 2 13:9 15
8 Kawasaki Frontale 9 3 4 2 17:14 13
9 Okayama 9 4 1 4 12:12 13
10 Shimizu S-Pulse 9 4 1 4 8:9 13
11 Urawa Reds 9 4 0 5 16:21 12
12 Cerezo Osaka 9 3 3 3 7:12 12
13 Mito 9 2 3 4 12:13 9
14 V-Varen Nagasaki 9 2 3 4 11:16 9
15 Nagoya Grampus 9 3 0 6 9:15 9
16 Kyoto 9 2 2 5 11:16 8
17 Avispa Fukuoka 9 2 1 6 11:13 7
18 Gamba Osaka 9 1 3 5 8:16 6
19 Chiba 9 1 2 6 8:19 5
20 Verdy 9 0 4 5 4:14 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)