Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FC Tokyo vs Verdy

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo
FC Tokyo Logo

FC Tokyo

2 - 1
FT
Verdy Logo

Verdy

Our Tip

Match Events

21'
Hashimoto K.
29' Event
Morita K.
Assist: Matsuhashi Y.
41' Event
Muroya S.
Assist: Sato R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The J1 League 2026 game between FC Tokyo and Verdy finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FC Tokyo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
FC Tokyo
30%
Draws
19%
Verdy
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: FC Tokyo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • FC Tokyo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • FC Tokyo are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular J1 League 2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
FC Tokyo Clean Sheet 68%
Verdy Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Tokyo Verdy
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 17 11
Draws 3 3
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.86 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.64
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 J1 League
FC Tokyo vs Verdy
2:1
Mar 22, 2026 J1 League
Verdy vs FC Tokyo
1:0
Sep 15, 2025 J1 League
FC Tokyo vs Verdy
1:0
Apr 2, 2025 J1 League
Verdy vs FC Tokyo
2:2
Aug 17, 2024 J1 League
FC Tokyo vs Verdy
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Tokyo Compare

Top Goalscorer Muroya S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nagakura M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Verdy Compare

Top Goalscorer Morita K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Tokyo 95 / 100
Verdy 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Tokyo Verdy

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Tokyo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Tokyo went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

FC Tokyo's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Verdy's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

FC Tokyo VS Verdy
2.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Tokyo

(Home)
02 Sept
Shimizu S-Pulse
1 : 1
FC Tokyo
29 Aug
V-Varen Nagasaki
0 : 3
FC Tokyo
26 Aug
FC Tokyo
6 : 0
Nagano Parceiro
21 Aug
FC Tokyo
2 : 0
Chiba
15 Aug
Vissel Kobe
2 : 2
FC Tokyo
Page 1 of 6

Verdy

(Away)
02 Sept
Verdy
0 : 2
Vissel Kobe
29 Aug
Verdy
0 : 2
Kashima Antlers
26 Aug
Verdy
4 : 1
Thespakusatsu Gunma
22 Aug
Okayama
0 : 0
Verdy
14 Aug
Verdy
1 : 3
Kashiwa Reysol
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kashima Antlers 18 15 0 3 31:11 45
2 FC Tokyo 18 13 0 5 32:18 37
3 Machida Zelvia 18 13 0 5 28:22 37
4 Kawasaki Frontale 18 10 0 8 26:28 28
5 Verdy 18 10 0 8 22:26 28
6 Urawa Reds 18 7 0 11 25:22 25
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 18 6 0 12 28:31 20
8 Kashiwa Reysol 18 7 0 11 22:24 20
9 Mito 18 6 0 12 23:39 18
10 Chiba 18 3 0 15 18:34 12
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vissel Kobe 18 11 0 7 29:25 35
2 Cerezo Osaka 18 11 0 7 30:21 31
3 Nagoya Grampus 18 10 0 8 33:31 31
4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 18 10 0 8 31:23 30
5 Gamba Osaka 18 10 0 8 31:25 28
6 Okayama 18 8 0 10 26:29 26
7 Shimizu S-Pulse 18 8 0 10 23:25 24
8 Kyoto 18 8 0 10 22:28 23
9 V-Varen Nagasaki 18 7 0 11 21:29 21
10 Avispa Fukuoka 18 7 0 11 21:31 21
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)