Sport Picks

Japan

J1 League 2026 Ajinomoto Stadium

FC Tokyo

2 - 1

Verdy

Our Tip

Match Events

21'

Hashimoto K.

29'

Morita K.

Assist: Matsuhashi Y.

41'

Muroya S.

Assist: Sato R.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The J1 League 2026 game between FC Tokyo and Verdy finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FC Tokyo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

FC Tokyo

Draws

Verdy

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: FC Tokyo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

FC Tokyo carry the better recent record into this one.
FC Tokyo are the model's pick here, at 90%.
Regular J1 League 2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%

FC Tokyo Clean Sheet 68%

Verdy Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	FC Tokyo	Verdy
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	16	12
Draws	5	3
Losses	8	15
Goals Scored	1.88	1
Goals Conceded	1.25	0.75
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 J1 League

FC Tokyo vs Verdy

Possession: 44% - 50% Cards: 2 - 3

2:1

Mar 22, 2026 J1 League

Verdy vs FC Tokyo

Possession: 54% - 52% Cards: 1 - 0

1:0

Sep 15, 2025 J1 League

FC Tokyo vs Verdy

Possession: 45% - 51% Cards: 0 - 1

1:0

Apr 2, 2025 J1 League

Verdy vs FC Tokyo

Possession: 51% - 46% Cards: 1 - 0

2:2

Aug 17, 2024 J1 League

FC Tokyo vs Verdy

Possession: 47% - 54% Cards: 2 - 0

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Tokyo Compare

Top Goalscorer Muroya S.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Nagakura M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

Verdy Compare

Top Goalscorer Morita K.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Tokyo 95 / 100

Verdy 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

FC Tokyo Verdy

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOK Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Tokyo scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Verdy's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: FC Tokyo stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Tokyo VS Verdy

1.88 Goals Scored 1

1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75

75% Over 1.5 38%

63% Over 2.5 38%

38% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	18	15	3	31:11	45
2	FC Tokyo	18	13	5	32:18	37
3	Machida Zelvia	18	13	5	28:22	37
4	Kawasaki Frontale	18	10	8	26:28	28
5	Verdy	18	10	8	22:26	28
6	Urawa Reds	18	7	11	25:22	25
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	18	6	12	28:31	20
8	Kashiwa Reysol	18	7	11	22:24	20
9	Mito	18	6	12	23:39	18
10	Chiba	18	3	15	18:34	12

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	11	7	29:25	35
2	Cerezo Osaka	18	11	7	30:21	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	10	8	33:31	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	10	8	31:23	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	10	8	31:25	28
6	Okayama	18	8	10	26:29	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	8	10	23:25	24
8	Kyoto	18	8	10	22:28	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	7	11	21:29	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	7	11	21:31	21