Sport Picks
FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
USL Championship ONEOK Field, Tulsa, OK 
Match Events
9'
9'
Ordonez A.
(Penalty)
31'
31'
Spaulding R.
32'
32'
Rodriguez A.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this USL Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
35%
42%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sacramento Republic
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
42%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Sacramento Republic lately — more wins on the board than FC Tulsa.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
FC Tulsa Clean Sheet 19%
Sacramento Republic Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | FC Tulsa | Sacramento Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 14 |
| Draws | 7 | 10 |
| Losses | 10 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 4, 2026 USL Championship
FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic
1:1
Aug 6, 2026 USL Championship
FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic
1:0
Mar 8, 2026 USL Championship
Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa
2:0
Jun 8, 2025 USL Championship
Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa
0:1
Mar 29, 2025 USL Championship
FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
FC Tulsa Compare
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Sacramento Republic Compare
Top Goalscorer Rodriguez M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
FC Tulsa 36 / 100
Sacramento Republic 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
FC Tulsa Sacramento Republic
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sacramento Republic Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: FC Tulsa scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.
Sacramento Republic's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.
FC Tulsa has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
H2H data points to 1.40 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
FC Tulsa VS Sacramento Republic
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
FC Tulsa
(Home) 04 Oct
FC Tulsa
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
01 Oct
FC Tulsa
1 : 0 New Mexico
26 Sept
El Paso Locomotive
1 : 1 FC Tulsa
19 Sept
Brooklyn FC
2 : 2 FC Tulsa
13 Sept
Phoenix Rising
2 : 1 FC Tulsa
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
FC Tulsa
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
01 Oct
FC Tulsa
1 : 0 New Mexico
30 Aug
FC Tulsa
1 : 0 Rhode Island
09 Aug
FC Tulsa
0 : 1 Detroit City
06 Aug
FC Tulsa
1 : 0 Sacramento Republic
Page 1 of 3
Sacramento Republic
(Away) 04 Oct
FC Tulsa
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
01 Oct
Sacramento Republic
3 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
27 Sept
New Mexico
2 : 3 Sacramento Republic
20 Sept
Sacramento Republic
0 : 0 San Antonio FC
13 Sept
Sacramento Republic
1 : 0 Detroit City
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
FC Tulsa
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
27 Sept
New Mexico
2 : 3 Sacramento Republic
06 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
30 Aug
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
08 Aug
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0 : 0 Sacramento Republic
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 46:25 | 52 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 33:20 | 47 |
| 3 | Charleston | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52:31 | 46 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29:26 | 39 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39:29 | 38 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28:27 | 38 |
| 7 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43:42 | 37 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 38:45 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 33:33 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 32:44 | 24 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27:55 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46:35 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41:32 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 37:25 | 44 |
| 4 | Lexington | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 49:33 | 43 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 32:25 | 42 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40:37 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 36:42 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29:29 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35:38 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36:40 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29:47 | 21 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
