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FC Ulaanbaatar vs Deren

Mongolia Mongolia

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Myagmar B.
45' Event
Temuulen U.
Own Goal
77' Event
Usukh-Ireedui B.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between FC Ulaanbaatar and Deren finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Deren.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
FC Ulaanbaatar
20%
Draws
38%
Deren
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: FC Ulaanbaatar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and FC Ulaanbaatar come out ahead of Deren on wins alone.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on FC Ulaanbaatar taking it.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
FC Ulaanbaatar Clean Sheet 10%
Deren Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Ulaanbaatar Deren
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 22 18
Draws 5 4
Losses 3 9
Goals Scored 3.63 3.13
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 3.63 3.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 6, 2026 Premier League
FC Ulaanbaatar vs Deren
2:3
Jun 27, 2026 Premier League
Deren vs FC Ulaanbaatar
0:2
May 23, 2026 Premier League
FC Ulaanbaatar vs Deren
2:0
Oct 26, 2025 Premier League
Deren vs FC Ulaanbaatar
1:1
Jul 20, 2025 Premier League
Deren vs FC Ulaanbaatar
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Ulaanbaatar Compare

Top Goalscorer Mijiddorj O.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.79
Avg xA / game 1.81

Deren Compare

Top Goalscorer Myagmar B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.85
Avg xA / game 1.74

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Ulaanbaatar 40 / 100
Deren 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Ulaanbaatar Deren

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Ulaanbaatar found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (30 games).

Deren let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

FC Ulaanbaatar has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

FC Ulaanbaatar VS Deren
3.63 Goals Scored 3.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Ulaanbaatar

(Home)
06 Jul
FC Ulaanbaatar
2 : 3
Deren
03 Jul
Khangarid
3 : 4
FC Ulaanbaatar
30 Jun
FC Ulaanbaatar
2 : 3
Central Stallions
27 Jun
Deren
0 : 2
FC Ulaanbaatar
24 Jun
FC Ulaanbaatar
3 : 1
Khangarid
Page 1 of 6

Deren

(Away)
06 Jul
FC Ulaanbaatar
2 : 3
Deren
03 Jul
Central Stallions
0 : 3
Deren
30 Jun
Deren
2 : 1
Khangarid
27 Jun
Deren
0 : 2
FC Ulaanbaatar
24 Jun
Deren
2 : 0
Central Stallions
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1FC Ulaanbaatar23173382:2054
2Central Stallions23145460:2647
3Deren23143670:2545
4Khangarid22104868:3434
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Qualification)