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FCI Tallinn vs Eston Villa

Estonia Estonia

Estonian Cup 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FCI Tallinn play Eston Villa in the Estonian Cup 2022/2023. FCI Tallinn are favorites here. Recently, FCI Tallinn averaged 3.37 goals scored and 2 conceded. Eston Villa averaged 1.97 goals scored and 3.37 conceded. In past meetings, FCI Tallinn won 2, Eston Villa won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 29, 2022 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.69 for FCI Tallinn and 2.00 for Eston Villa. This points to a FCI Tallinn double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
FCI Tallinn
15%
Draws
26%
Eston Villa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FCI Tallinn

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • FCI Tallinn picked up more points recently compared to Eston Villa.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.69 vs 2.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 85%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 97%
Over 2.5 Goals 85%
Over 3.5 Goals 51%
Over 4.5 Goals 26%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64%
FCI Tallinn Clean Sheet 10%
Eston Villa Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 87%
Second Half Goal 92%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FCI Tallinn Eston Villa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 12
Draws 4 0
Losses 10 18
Goals Scored 3.37 1.97
Goals Conceded 2 3.37
Expected Goals (xG) 4.00 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 29, 2022 Estonian Cup
FCI Tallinn vs Eston Villa
3:1
Sep 9, 2009 Estonian Cup
FCI Tallinn vs Eston Villa
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FCI Tallinn Compare

Top Goalscorer Volkov A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gasinski D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 3.08
Avg xA / game 2

Eston Villa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FCI Tallinn 55 / 100
Eston Villa 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FCI Tallinn Eston Villa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FCI Tallinn Win (1)
Secondary Pick FCI Tallinn & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.6%
1.96
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +7.9%
1.27
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

FCI Tallinn attacking → ← attacking Eston Villa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FCI Tallinn scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

Eston Villa let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

FCI Tallinn went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Eston Villa lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

52 Points in last 5 36
4.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.13
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38