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Fencibles United AFC vs South Auckland Rangers

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Laing-McConnell D.
42' Event
Morris D.
47' Event
Lai-Sai D.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-0, with Fencibles United AFC advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Fencibles United AFC
22%
Draws
18%
South Auckland Rangers
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Fencibles United AFC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Fencibles United AFC come out ahead of South Auckland Rangers on wins alone.
  • Model gives Fencibles United AFC a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Fencibles United AFC have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Fencibles United AFC, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 10%
Over 4.5 Goals 5%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.6%
Fencibles United AFC Clean Sheet 20%
South Auckland Rangers Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fencibles United AFC South Auckland Rangers
Matches Played 5 1
Wins 3 0
Draws 0 0
Losses 2 1
Goals Scored 1.6 0
Goals Conceded 1.4 3
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.40 3.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Chatham Cup
Fencibles United AFC vs South Auckland Rangers
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fencibles United AFC Compare

Top Goalscorer Laing-McConnell D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Morris D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.8

South Auckland Rangers Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fencibles United AFC 58 / 100
South Auckland Rangers 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fencibles United AFC South Auckland Rangers

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FEN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

South Auckland Rangers let in goals in 100% of their last 1 matches.

Attacking prowess: Fencibles United AFC scored in 60% of their last 5 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Fencibles United AFC stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fencibles United AFC VS South Auckland Rangers
1.6 Goals Scored 0
1.4 Goals Conceded 3
100% Over 1.5 100%
60% Over 2.5 100%
20% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Fencibles United AFC

(Home)
25 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 2
Auckland City
04 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 0
South Auckland Rangers
26 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
0 : 2
Eastern Suburbs
04 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
2 : 1
Western Springs
08 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
0 : 2
Melville

South Auckland Rangers

(Away)
04 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 0
South Auckland Rangers

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Fencibles United AFC3
South Auckland Rangers0
Auckland City3
Takapuna Afc0
Nelson Suburbs FC5
Northern AFC0
Auckland United3
Cambridge1
Dunedin City Royals0
Cashmere Technical9
Island Bay1
Miramar3
Melville0
Hibiscus Coast1
Petone0
Napier City4
Quarter-finals
Fencibles United AFC3
Auckland City2
Nelson Suburbs FC2
Auckland United1
Cashmere Technical2
Miramar1
Hibiscus Coast2
Napier City5
Semi-finals
Fencibles United AFC-
Nelson Suburbs FC-
Cashmere Technical-
Napier City-
Final
TBD-
TBD-