Sport Picks
Fenix Mariupol vs FC Chernihiv - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Ukraine
Persha Liga Kolos Stadium, Kovalivka 
Match Events
12'
12'
Gunichev Y.
32'
32'
Shalfeev Y.
36'
36'
Myronenko D.
AI Match Summary
Fenix Mariupol in this Persha Liga matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Fenix Mariupol.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
58%
15%
27%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Fenix Mariupol
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Fenix Mariupol have won more games recently than FC Chernihiv.
- Fenix Mariupol are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Regular Persha Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Fenix Mariupol Clean Sheet 68%
FC Chernihiv Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Fenix Mariupol | FC Chernihiv |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 13 | 7 |
| Draws | 9 | 6 |
| Losses | 6 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.64 | 1.21 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.93 | 1.54 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 1, 2026 Persha Liga
Fenix Mariupol vs FC Chernihiv
3:1
Mar 21, 2026 Persha Liga
FC Chernihiv vs Fenix Mariupol
1:4
Mar 18, 2026 Ukrainian Cup
FC Chernihiv vs Fenix Mariupol
1:0
Aug 31, 2025 Persha Liga
Fenix Mariupol vs FC Chernihiv
1:0
Jul 14, 2024 Club Friendly
Fenix Mariupol vs FC Chernihiv
2:5
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Fenix Mariupol Compare
Top Goalscorer Orikhovskyi P.
2 Goals Assists Leader Gunichev Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
FC Chernihiv Compare
Top Goalscorer Shalfeev Y.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Fenix Mariupol 95 / 100
FC Chernihiv 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Fenix Mariupol FC Chernihiv
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Fenix Mariupol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.
Fenix Mariupol has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Fenix Mariupol found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).
Defensive concern: FC Chernihiv conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Fenix Mariupol VS FC Chernihiv
1.63 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Fenix Mariupol
(Home) 01 Nov
Fenix Mariupol
3 : 1 FC Chernihiv
23 Oct
Metalist Kharkiv
0 : 2 Fenix Mariupol
17 Oct
Fenix Mariupol
4 : 1 Inhulets
11 Oct
UCSA
1 : 2 Fenix Mariupol
05 Oct
Fenix Mariupol
0 : 0 Nyva Ternopil
Page 1 of 6
01 Nov
Fenix Mariupol
3 : 1 FC Chernihiv
17 Oct
Fenix Mariupol
4 : 1 Inhulets
05 Oct
Fenix Mariupol
0 : 0 Nyva Ternopil
20 Sept
Fenix Mariupol
2 : 1 Zhytomyr 2
09 Sept
Fenix Mariupol
0 : 2 Zorya
Page 1 of 3
FC Chernihiv
(Away) 01 Nov
Fenix Mariupol
3 : 1 FC Chernihiv
29 Oct
FC Chernihiv
1 : 2 Epitsentr
17 Oct
Victoria
2 : 1 FC Chernihiv
11 Oct
Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998)
0 : 1 FC Chernihiv
06 Oct
Trostyanets
2 : 4 FC Chernihiv
Page 1 of 6
01 Nov
Fenix Mariupol
3 : 1 FC Chernihiv
17 Oct
Victoria
2 : 1 FC Chernihiv
11 Oct
Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998)
0 : 1 FC Chernihiv
06 Oct
Trostyanets
2 : 4 FC Chernihiv
02 Oct
SC Poltava
3 : 2 FC Chernihiv
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victoria | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 19:11 | 28 |
| 2 | Fenix Mariupol | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 23:14 | 27 |
| 3 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 22:14 | 26 |
| 4 | Kulikiv | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 29:18 | 25 |
| 5 | SC Poltava | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25:13 | 24 |
| 6 | Oleksandriya | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 19:11 | 24 |
| 7 | Lokomotyv Kyiv | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 19:17 | 20 |
| 8 | Nyva Ternopil | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 17:13 | 19 |
| 9 | Inhulets | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 15:19 | 18 |
| 10 | Metalist Kharkiv | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17:16 | 18 |
| 11 | Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998) | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 13:18 | 16 |
| 12 | UCSA | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 18:23 | 14 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka 2 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 12:26 | 13 |
| 14 | FC Chernihiv | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13:19 | 10 |
| 15 | Probiy Horodenka | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14:34 | 10 |
| 16 | Zhytomyr 2 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 18:27 | 9 |
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Persha Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Persha Liga (Relegation Group)
Relegation - Druha Liga 2027/2028 (Main)
