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Fenix Mariupol vs Inhulets - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ukraine Ukraine

Persha Liga Kolos Stadium, Kovalivka
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
10:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Fenix Mariupol host Inhulets in the Persha Liga. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Fenix Mariupol have averaged 1.43 scored and 1.1 conceded recently, against Inhulets's 0.97 scored and 1.48 conceded. Head-to-head, Fenix Mariupol have won 1 to Inhulets's 1, with 2 draws. They last met on Apr 19, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (1.81 - 1.00) back Fenix Mariupol to edge this. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Fenix Mariupol
30%
Draws
39%
Inhulets
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Inhulets

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Fenix Mariupol come out ahead of Inhulets on wins alone.
  • Model gives Fenix Mariupol a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Persha Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Fenix Mariupol Clean Sheet 20%
Inhulets Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fenix Mariupol Inhulets
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 9
Draws 11 6
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.43 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Persha Liga
Fenix Mariupol vs Inhulets
1:1
Oct 3, 2025 Persha Liga
Inhulets vs Fenix Mariupol
2:0
Oct 28, 2023 Persha Liga
Inhulets vs Fenix Mariupol
0:1
Aug 28, 2023 Persha Liga
Fenix Mariupol vs Inhulets
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fenix Mariupol 36 / 100
Inhulets 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fenix Mariupol Inhulets

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Fenix Mariupol scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Inhulets let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.75 goals.

Solid form: Fenix Mariupol remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Fenix Mariupol VS Inhulets
2.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Fenix Mariupol

(Home)
05 Oct
Fenix Mariupol
0 : 0
Nyva Ternopil
27 Sept
Oleksandriya
1 : 1
Fenix Mariupol
20 Sept
Fenix Mariupol
2 : 1
Zhytomyr 2
13 Sept
Probiy Horodenka
0 : 2
Fenix Mariupol
09 Sept
Fenix Mariupol
0 : 2
Zorya
Page 1 of 6

Inhulets

(Away)
03 Oct
Victoria
1 : 0
Inhulets
26 Sept
Inhulets
2 : 1
Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998)
12 Sept
Inhulets
1 : 0
Metalist Kharkiv
04 Sept
SC Poltava
0 : 0
Inhulets
29 Aug
UCSA
1 : 2
Inhulets
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Victoria 10 6 2 2 12:6 20
2 Oleksandriya 10 5 4 1 15:7 19
3 SC Poltava 10 5 3 2 16:7 18
4 Kulikiv 10 5 2 3 20:11 17
5 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 10 5 2 3 17:14 17
6 Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998) 10 4 3 3 12:9 15
7 Fenix Mariupol 10 4 3 3 12:11 15
8 Inhulets 9 4 2 3 10:11 14
9 Metalist Kharkiv 10 4 2 4 11:11 14
10 Lokomotyv Kyiv 10 3 4 3 12:12 13
11 Kolos Kovalivka 2 10 4 0 6 11:17 12
12 Nyva Ternopil 10 2 5 3 9:9 11
13 UCSA 10 2 4 4 14:17 10
14 FC Chernihiv 9 1 4 4 10:14 7
15 Zhytomyr 2 10 1 4 5 14:20 7
16 Probiy Horodenka 10 1 2 7 8:27 5
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Persha Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Persha Liga (Relegation Group)
Relegation - Druha Liga 2027/2028 (Main)