Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Fenix Mariupol vs Victoria

Ukraine Ukraine

Persha Liga Kolos Stadium, Kovalivka
Fri, Jul 24, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Fenix Mariupol host Victoria in the Persha Liga. Little to choose between these two on current form. Victoria have shipped 0.63 goals a game lately, while Fenix Mariupol have conceded 0.5 and scored 1.5. Past meetings favor Fenix Mariupol slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jun 1, 2026, ending 2:0. The numbers (1.06 xG vs 0.94) point toward Fenix Mariupol. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Fenix Mariupol
11%
Draws
9%
Victoria
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Fenix Mariupol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Fenix Mariupol lately — more wins on the board than Victoria.
  • Win probability leans Fenix Mariupol's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Fenix Mariupol Clean Sheet 20%
Victoria Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fenix Mariupol Victoria
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 9 8
Draws 9 8
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.5 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.5 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 1, 2026 Persha Liga
Fenix Mariupol vs Victoria
2:0
Nov 8, 2025 Persha Liga
Victoria vs Fenix Mariupol
1:2
Nov 3, 2024 Persha Liga
Victoria vs Fenix Mariupol
0:1
Sep 11, 2024 Persha Liga
Fenix Mariupol vs Victoria
0:4
Oct 1, 2023 Persha Liga
Victoria vs Fenix Mariupol
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fenix Mariupol 76 / 100
Victoria 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fenix Mariupol Victoria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FEN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Fenix Mariupol stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Fenix Mariupol scored in 64% of their last 28 games.

Victoria's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 27 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Fenix Mariupol VS Victoria
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Fenix Mariupol

(Home)
02 Jul
Karpaty Lviv
1 : 1
Fenix Mariupol
27 Jun
Veres Rivne
1 : 1
Fenix Mariupol
01 Jun
Fenix Mariupol
2 : 0
Victoria
23 May
FC Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0 : 0
Fenix Mariupol
17 May
Fenix Mariupol
0 : 0
Probiy Horodenka
Page 1 of 6

Victoria

(Away)
14 Jul
Livyi Bereg
1 : 1
Victoria
01 Jun
Fenix Mariupol
2 : 0
Victoria
23 May
Victoria
0 : 1
Probiy Horodenka
16 May
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1 : 0
Victoria
10 May
Victoria
2 : 2
Inhulets
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Nyva Ternopil00000:00
2Oleksandriya00000:00
3Metalist Kharkiv00000:00
4Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998)00000:00
5Lokomotyv Kyiv00000:00
6Inhulets00000:00
7Ahrobiznes Volochysk00000:00
8Victoria00000:00
9Fenix Mariupol00000:00
10FC Chernihiv00000:00
11SC Poltava00000:00
12UCSA00000:00
13Zhytomyr 200000:00
14Kolos Kovalivka 200000:00
15Kulikiv00000:00
16Probiy Horodenka00000:00
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Persha Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Persha Liga (Relegation Group)
Relegation - Druha Liga 2027/2028 (Main)