Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Fernwald vs Erlensee

Germany Germany

Oberliga Hessen 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Sabate D.
41' Event
Mukasa B.
66' Event
Hofmann J.

AI Match Summary

The Oberliga Hessen 2023/2024 game between Fernwald and Erlensee finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fernwald.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Fernwald
20%
Draws
30%
Erlensee
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Fernwald

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Erlensee haven't matched Fernwald's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Fernwald's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Oberliga Hessen 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Fernwald Clean Sheet 19%
Erlensee Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fernwald Erlensee
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 11 5
Draws 10 5
Losses 10 20
Goals Scored 1.71 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.52 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2024 Oberliga Hessen
Fernwald vs Erlensee
4:0
Sep 16, 2023 Oberliga Hessen
Erlensee vs Fernwald
2:1
Mar 18, 2023 Oberliga Hessen
Erlensee vs Fernwald
4:1
Sep 3, 2022 Oberliga Hessen
Fernwald vs Erlensee
3:3
Mar 5, 2022 Club Friendly
Erlensee vs Fernwald
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fernwald Compare

Top Goalscorer Sabate D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mukasa B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Erlensee Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fernwald 85 / 100
Erlensee 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fernwald Erlensee

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fernwald Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fernwald scored in 87% of their last 31 games.

Defensive concern: Erlensee conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Fernwald went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fernwald VS -
1.75 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Fernwald

(Home)
15 Aug
Fernwald
1 : 3
Hunfelder
12 Aug
Fernwald
1 : 1
Pohlheim
08 Aug
Alzenau
1 : 1
Fernwald
31 Jul
Fernwald
2 : 0
Stadtallendorf
04 Jul
Fernwald
0 : 6
Siegen
Page 1 of 7

Erlensee

(Away)
25 Jan
Erlensee
0 : 4
Aschaffenburg
16 Jul
RW Walldorf
3 : 0
Erlensee
03 Jul
Erlensee
4 : 0
Hanau
27 Jun
Erlensee
1 : 5
Hanauer SC
01 Jun
Stadtallendorf
2 : 0
Erlensee
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Giessen 34 22 7 5 69:28 73
2 Turk Gucu Friedberg 34 23 5 6 93:42 71
3 Baunatal 34 20 7 7 70:43 67
4 Alzenau 34 19 6 9 72:40 63
5 Hanauer SC 34 19 3 12 70:55 57
6 Eddersheim 34 16 7 11 56:45 55
7 Hunfelder 34 16 6 12 67:62 54
8 Fernwald 34 15 5 14 64:55 50
9 Weidenhausen 34 14 8 12 62:56 50
10 RW Walldorf 34 13 7 14 62:63 46
11 Waldgirmes 34 11 7 16 48:76 40
12 Stadtallendorf 34 10 9 15 53:54 39
13 Hanau 34 9 7 18 56:78 34
14 VfB Marburg 34 9 7 18 46:71 34
15 SV Steinbach 34 7 12 15 46:69 33
16 Viktoria Griesheim 34 8 9 17 39:71 33
17 Erlensee 34 7 6 21 42:71 27
18 TUS Dietkirchen 34 6 6 22 49:85 24
Promotion - Regionalliga Sudwest 2024/2025 (Main)
Promotion - Oberliga Bremen 2023/2024 (Promotion)
Relegation - Oberliga Hessen 2023/2024 (Relegation)