Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ferrandina vs Francavilla

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

89' Event
Gentile C.

AI Match Summary

Francavilla in this Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Francavilla.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Ferrandina
15%
Draws
51%
Francavilla
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Francavilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Francavilla have won more games recently than Ferrandina.
  • Model gives Francavilla a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Francavilla here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Ferrandina Clean Sheet 11%
Francavilla Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ferrandina Francavilla
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 11
Draws 8 6
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 0.67 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Ferrandina vs Francavilla
0:1
Oct 8, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie D
Ferrandina vs Francavilla
2:3
Sep 21, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Francavilla vs Ferrandina
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ferrandina Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Francavilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Gentile C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ferrandina 18 / 100
Francavilla 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ferrandina Francavilla

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Francavilla Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Francavilla let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

Away concern: Francavilla has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Ferrandina scored in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ferrandina VS Francavilla
0.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ferrandina

(Home)
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1
Ferrandina
26 Apr
Ferrandina
1 : 0
A.C.D. Nardo
19 Apr
SS Nola 1925
0 : 0
Ferrandina
12 Apr
Ferrandina
0 : 5
Gravina
02 Apr
Citta di Fasano
2 : 0
Ferrandina
Page 1 of 6

Francavilla

(Away)
20 Sept
Melfi
2 : 1
Francavilla
16 Sept
Francavilla
0 : 1
Palmese 1914
13 Sept
Bisceglie
2 : 1
Francavilla
06 Sept
Francavilla
1 : 0
Ischia
03 May
Francavilla
2 : 0
Afragolese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)