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Ferrandina vs Gravina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Santoro D.
48' Event
Scaringella M.
56' Event
Scaringella M.

AI Match Summary

Gravina in this Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gravina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Ferrandina
30%
Draws
51%
Gravina
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gravina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Gravina have won more games recently than Ferrandina.
  • Gravina are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Ferrandina Clean Sheet 10%
Gravina Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ferrandina Gravina
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 16
Draws 8 6
Losses 16 8
Goals Scored 0.67 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Ferrandina vs Gravina
0:5
Nov 30, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Gravina vs Ferrandina
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ferrandina Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Gravina Compare

Top Goalscorer Scaringella M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Perri M.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ferrandina 10 / 100
Gravina 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ferrandina Gravina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gravina Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.50 goals per match.

Gravina's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Ferrandina found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Ferrandina went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ferrandina VS Gravina
0.63 Goals Scored 2.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ferrandina

(Home)
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1
Ferrandina
26 Apr
Ferrandina
1 : 0
A.C.D. Nardo
19 Apr
SS Nola 1925
0 : 0
Ferrandina
12 Apr
Ferrandina
0 : 5
Gravina
02 Apr
Citta di Fasano
2 : 0
Ferrandina
Page 1 of 6

Gravina

(Away)
20 Sept
Gravina
2 : 2
Real Forio 2014
16 Sept
Turris
0 : 0
Gravina
12 Sept
Gravina
3 : 1
San Felice Gladiator
06 Sept
Fidelis Andria
1 : 3
Gravina
03 May
Gravina
3 : 2
Real Normanna
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)